23416 Flickering Sky Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$235,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,642 sqft lot $150/sqft · 6% below area Est $250k · 6% under $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottage II is a collection of new homes for sale at Elm Creek, a masterplan community in the charming city of Elgin, TX. The community offers affordable homes and access to a state-of-the-art community center. There are tons of local shops and restaurants nearby, plus Austin is only 40 minutes away for more entertainment options.

Key facts

• 6,642 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($272/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $216,278 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,994
• List price: $235,999
• Delta: -5.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13409 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	1mo	$248,990	$158	97
13400 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-4%)	1mo	$257,990	$171	84
13324 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-4%)	2mo	$252,990	$168	82
13316 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-4%)	1mo	$250,999	$166	82
13421 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	1mo	$241,999	$173	75
13405 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	2mo	$237,990	$169	73
13321 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	1mo	$237,999	$169	72
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+6%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	72
23829 Glowing Embers Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+6%)	2mo	$249,990	$150	70
13309 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	2mo	$226,990	$162	70
23501 Firelight Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	2mo	$228,990	$162	68
23817 Glowing Embers Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-6%)	1mo	$221,990	$151	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $130,302
• Equity at exit: $212,607

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.80×
• Total profit: $383,249
• Equity at exit: $458,494

Cash invested: $66,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,163 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,238
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$295 /mo · $3,540/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,134

Max offer price $235,999

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,000
• Closing costs: $7,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	20d	1	0.21mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	21d	1	0.31mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	17d	1	0.31mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	43d	1	0.42mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.62mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	43d	1	0.65mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	16d	1	0.74mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	23d	1	0.74mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	23d	1	0.77mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	2d	1	0.78mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	43d	1	0.81mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	0.89mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	0.89mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	0.95mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	23d	1	1.00mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	1.00mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $235,999 Pending 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,999 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,999 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $235,999 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $235,999 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $235,999 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $235,999 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-05-13
   listed $235,999 Active 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   Cottage II is a collection of new homes for sale at Elm Creek, a masterplan community in the charming city of Elgin, TX. The community offers affordable homes and access to a state-of-the-art community center. There are tons of local shops and restaurants nearby, plus Austin is only 40 minutes away for more entertainment options.

9. 2026-05-08
   price $235,999 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

10. 2026-05-05
    price $237,999 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

11. 2026-05-01
    price $245,999 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

12. 2026-04-20
    price $251,999 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

13. 2026-04-03
    price $257,999 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

14. 2026-03-30
    listed $257,990 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,220
• − Property taxes: −$3,540
• − Insurance: −$1,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$6,865
• Taxable loss: −$3,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$879
• After-tax cash flow: $1,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract renters and reduce utility costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract renters and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $235,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $235,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $237,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $245,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $251,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $257,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $257,990 Unlock MLS