The Waterloo (175) Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$229,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,755 sqft · SingleFamily · 217 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An open concept first floor makes this home perfect for conversation and entertainment. Upstairs, the versatile loft is perfect for reading, gaming, or a home office setup.

Key facts

• Versatile loft
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 216 days

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• VERSATILE LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $229,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $326,105.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-708 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanco Vista El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2406 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 56d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,627 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.31%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,105
• List price: $229,990
• Delta: -29.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
257 Fossil Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,690 (-4%)	0mo	$283,000	$167	76
291 Texas Agate Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (-4%)	3mo	$314,990	$187	74
100 Basalt Bnd	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,012 (+15%)	0mo	$339,990	$169	63
221 Alpha	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-5%)	4mo	$260,000	$156	61
238 Texas Agate Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,012 (+15%)	3mo	$335,990	$167	60
145 Fossil	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,012 (+15%)	5mo	$338,840	$168	59
271 Texas Agate Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,012 (+15%)	3mo	$349,990	$174	58
145 Sormonne Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+1%)	2mo	$305,990	$172	57
461 Sormonne Loop	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,815 (+3%)	4mo	$287,990	$159	51
118 Meuse Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,879 (+7%)	3mo	$250,999	$134	48
158 Meuse Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,879 (+7%)	4mo	$261,999	$139	48
483 Sormonne Loop	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,966 (+12%)	4mo	$295,990	$151	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-103,651
• Equity at exit: $48,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.87×
• Total profit: $-170,373
• Equity at exit: $28,196

Cash invested: $91,309 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 65 active · 63 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.3 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $319,808 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 160 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2406
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,710
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$408 /mo · $4,892/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-708

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,853

Max offer price $223,630

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-483	-5% $-596	+0% $-708	+5% $-821	+10% $-934
Rent	-10% $-863	-5% $-785	+0% $-708	+5% $-631	+10% $-554
Rate	-1.0pp $-544	-0.5pp $-625	base $-708	+0.5pp $-793	+1.0pp $-879

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,526
• Closing costs: $9,783
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
164 Cinnabar Ln #1 Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,750	$1.02	42d	1	0.12mi
164 Cinnabar Ln #4 Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1479	$1,699	$1.15	9d	1	0.12mi
105 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,995	$1.18	9d	1	0.14mi
105 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,100	$1.24	63d	1	0.14mi
310 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,000	$1.25	100d	1	0.26mi
185 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,800	$1.31	107d	1	0.45mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,895	$1.29	100d	1	0.49mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,895	$1.29	82d	1	0.49mi
137 Rafe Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,800	$1.23	24d	1	0.60mi
384 Discovery Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2080	$1,995	$0.96	139d	1	0.65mi
399 Langely Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1969	$1,995	$1.01	9d	1	0.66mi
141 Opal Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,775	$2.00	6d	84	0.66mi
541 Alpha Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,795	$1.09	42d	1	0.69mi
541 Alpha Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,795	$1.09	56d	1	0.69mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,746	$1.18	28d	1	0.70mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,890	$1.28	94d	1	0.70mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,988	$1.35	112d	1	0.70mi
349 Zarya Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2089	$6,200	$2.97	113d	1	0.71mi
351 Musgrav Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,895	$1.17	56d	1	0.71mi
702 Silver Springs Bnd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2017	$2,150	$1.07	42d	1	0.74mi
309 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1710	$1,800	$1.05	24d	1	0.75mi
265 Garner Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,700	$1.74	28d	1	0.76mi
190 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	119d	1	0.76mi
446 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,699	$1.38	42d	1	0.76mi
127 Jura Pass Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	9d	1	0.77mi
364 Leonardo Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1252	$1,595	$1.27	28d	1	0.79mi
265 Vortex Pass Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2467	$2,595	$1.05	113d	1	0.80mi
208 Discovery Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1893	$1,895	$1.00	94d	1	0.80mi
208 Discovery Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1893	$2,025	$1.07	139d	1	0.80mi
195 Otter Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2356	$2,595	$1.10	83d	1	0.80mi
183 Otter Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2031	$2,250	$1.11	67d	1	0.82mi
184 Unity Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1704	$2,000	$1.17	139d	1	0.82mi
220 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2499	$2,499	$1.00	9d	1	0.83mi
135 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,815	$1.18	24d	1	0.83mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,850	$1.25	9d	1	0.84mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	139d	1	0.84mi
160 Atlantis Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$1,795	$1.17	9d	1	0.84mi
112 Ames Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,695	$1.31	9d	1	0.85mi
147 Otter Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,850	$1.14	108d	1	0.85mi
156 Zion Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1895	$1,995	$1.05	78d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $229,990 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $229,990 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $229,990 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $229,990 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $229,990 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $229,990 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $229,990 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $229,990 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $229,990 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $229,990 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $229,990 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $229,990 Active 206 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $229,990 Active 205 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $229,990 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $229,990 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $229,990 Active 197 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $224,990 Active 194 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $224,990 Active 193 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $224,990 Active 192 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $224,990 Active 191 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $224,990 Active 190 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $224,990 Active 188 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $224,990 Active 187 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $224,990 Active 186 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $224,990 Active 185 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $224,990 Active 184 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $224,990 Active 183 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $224,990 Active 182 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $224,990 Active 181 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $224,990 Active 180 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $224,990 Active 179 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $224,990 Active 178 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $224,990 Active 177 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $224,990 Active 176 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $224,990 Active 174 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $224,990 Active 173 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $224,990 Active 172 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $224,990 Active 171 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    price $224,990 Active 169 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $249,990 Active 169 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $249,990 Active 168 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 167 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 166 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 163 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $249,990 Active 161 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $249,990 Active 160 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $249,990 Active 158 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 156 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $249,990 Active 155 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $249,990 Active 154 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,267
• − Property taxes: −$4,892
• − Insurance: −$1,631
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − Depreciation: −$9,487
• Taxable loss: −$14,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,494
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great open concept floor plan and versatile loft space, making it ideal for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Install new kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can add a modern touch and improve the kitchen's appearance ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blanco Vista El F TX #1,744/4,322 Nat'l #21,283/41,679 Middle Laura B Wallace Middle F TX #947/1,662 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Jack C Hays H S F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Listed $254,990 Zillow