Shipton Plan · Denton, TX 76226

$363,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,877 sqft · SingleFamily · 328 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 328 days

🏗️ New construction. The $363,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $400,276.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $364k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1110 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,577 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,276
• List price: $363,990
• Delta: -9.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3608 Birch Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,010 (+7%)	0mo	$419,990	$209	83
3908 Birch Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,958 (+4%)	3mo	$389,990	$199	81
7613 Poplar Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	2,004 (+7%)	0mo	$385,000	$192	81
3805 Birch Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,029 (+8%)	1mo	$404,990	$200	80
3809 Birch Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,649 (-12%)	1mo	$369,990	$224	73
3616 Birch Ln	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,106 (+12%)	1mo	$442,159	$210	71
4000 Birch Ln	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,010 (+7%)	5mo	$413,234	$206	70
3925 Birch Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,106 (+12%)	4mo	$429,990	$204	62
3721 Birch Ln	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,106 (+12%)	4mo	$419,990	$199	59
7408 Santolina Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,649 (-12%)	6mo	$364,990	$221	59
4008 Birch Ln	0.26mi	4/3.5	2,106 (+12%)	4mo	$409,990	$195	58
3912 Birch Ln	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,106 (+12%)	7mo	$426,454	$202	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-100,272
• Equity at exit: $59,682

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-143,512
• Equity at exit: $34,609

Cash invested: $112,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1110
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,876 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,099
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $6,004/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,502

Max offer price $328,741

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,069
• Closing costs: $12,008
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5901 Bull Creek Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,195	$1.67	3d	1	0.88mi
5908 Harvey Gap Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$3,800	$2.07	1d	1	0.92mi
5405 Bardwell Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$2,750	$1.56	24d	1	1.08mi
8508 White Rock Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2041	$3,000	$1.47	18d	1	1.13mi
5108 Middlestone Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1913	$2,750	$1.44	7d	1	1.19mi
5200 Woodway Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2129	$2,600	$1.22	4d	1	1.24mi
5200 Woodway Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2129	$2,900	$1.36	43d	1	1.24mi
3329 Tamarack Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1994	$2,600	$1.30	17d	1	1.26mi
3621 Bonnie Brae St Unit 3621 Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,195	$1.18	43d	1	1.34mi
3612 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1684	$2,350	$1.40	43d	1	1.36mi
3600 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,350	$1.26	17d	1	1.37mi
3413 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1684	$2,250	$1.34	17d	1	1.38mi
3401 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1922	$2,500	$1.30	43d	1	1.39mi
4204 Sonoma Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2105	$2,100	$1.00	18d	1	1.40mi
4505 Vintage Blvd Argyle, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1392	$1,945	$1.40	10d	11	1.40mi
4701 Napa Valley Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1761	$1,995	$1.13	43d	1	1.41mi
3128 Buckthorn Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1845	$2,395	$1.30	43d	1	1.41mi
3312 Stonecrop Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,200	$1.27	24d	1	1.43mi
4512 Remuda Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	43d	1	1.45mi
4705 Piedmonte Ct Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	24d	1	1.45mi
5208 Brookside Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2007	$2,495	$1.24	7d	1	1.46mi
4512 Claret Ct Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2395	$2,600	$1.09	24d	1	1.47mi
3121 Hornbeam St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,399	$1.30	2d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $363,990 Active 328 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $363,990 Active 327 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $363,990 Active 326 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $363,990 Active 325 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $363,990 Active 323 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $363,990 Active 319 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $363,990 Active 318 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $363,990 Active 317 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $363,990 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $363,990 Active 313 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $363,990 Active 312 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $363,990 Active 311 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $363,990 Active 310 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    price $363,990 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

15. 2026-03-12
    price $361,990 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

16. 2026-02-04
    price $360,990 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

17. 2026-01-16
    price $359,990 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

18. 2026-01-08
    price $357,990 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

19. 2025-10-23
    price $356,990 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

20. 2025-07-31
    price $354,990 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

21. 2025-07-25
    listed $359,990 Active 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,422
• − Property taxes: −$6,004
• − Insurance: −$2,001
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,761
• − Management: −$2,761
• − Depreciation: −$11,644
• Taxable loss: −$13,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,140
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 40.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $363,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $361,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $360,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $359,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $357,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $356,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $354,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-25 Listed $359,990 Zillow