245 Baker Dr SW · Varnamtown, NC 28462

$145,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1985 0.34 ac lot Est $187k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just in time for holiday vacation...great beach getaway! 2 bedroom, 2 bath furnished doublewide with third room which can be used for office or den. Home sets on large lot in Maple Creek community. With fenced yard for privacy and wired storage building, there is plenty of space for all your beach toys! Maple Creek is conveniently located within five minutes of Holden Beach area attractions and offers boat launch for those weekend boating outings. Priced to sell, this one won't last long! Call today to view!

Key facts

• Coastal retreat
• Screened porch
• No hoa community

Tags

• COASTAL RETREAT
• NO HOA COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SCREENED PORCH
• CONVERTED SUNROOM
• LARGE COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.8% in Varnamtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#521 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment B; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 506 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.06%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,624
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
324 Maple Creek Rd SW	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	0mo	$225,000	$205	81
385 Maple Creek Rd SW	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-4%)	14mo	$150,000	$136	64
451 Baker Dr SW	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	5mo	$196,000	$161	62
411 Baker Dr SW	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,042 (-10%)	16mo	$168,593	$162	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $19,781
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $72,901
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 506
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $421/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,167

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $762	-5% $721	+0% $680	+5% $639	+10% $598
Rent	-10% $520	-5% $600	+0% $680	+5% $760	+10% $840
Rate	-1.0pp $753	-0.5pp $717	base $680	+0.5pp $642	+1.0pp $604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   price $145,000
3. 2026-01-20
   listed $150,000 Active
4. 2025-12-22
   soldstatus $100,000
5. 2014-03-11
   soldstatus $51,500 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   Just in time for holiday vacation...great beach getaway! 2 bedroom, 2 bath furnished doublewide with third room which can be used for office or den. Home sets on large lot in Maple Creek community. With fenced yard for privacy and wired storage building, there is plenty of space for all your beach toys! Maple Creek is conveniently located within five minutes of Holden Beach area attractions and offers boat launch for those weekend boating outings. Priced to sell, this one won't last long! Call today to view!

6. 2014-03-11
   soldstatus $51,500

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   Just in time for holiday vacation...great beach getaway! 2 bedroom, 2 bath furnished doublewide with third room which can be used for office or den. Home sets on large lot in Maple Creek community. With fenced yard for privacy and wired storage building, there is plenty of space for all your beach toys! Maple Creek is conveniently located within five minutes of Holden Beach area attractions and offers boat launch for those weekend boating outings. Priced to sell, this one won't last long! Call today to view!

7. 2013-12-02
   listed $59,900 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   Just in time for holiday vacation...great beach getaway! 2 bedroom, 2 bath furnished doublewide with third room which can be used for office or den. Home sets on large lot in Maple Creek community. With fenced yard for privacy and wired storage building, there is plenty of space for all your beach toys! Maple Creek is conveniently located within five minutes of Holden Beach area attractions and offers boat launch for those weekend boating outings. Priced to sell, this one won't last long! Call today to view!

8. 2013-10-26
   historical
9. 2013-04-26
   listed $59,900
10. 2006-09-14
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $421 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,189 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$768/yr (+$64/mo · 182.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 80% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$421
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,947
• − Management: −$1,947
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $6,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,478
• After-tax cash flow: $6,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Varnamtown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #19194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 269.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+107.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $145,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $150,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records
• 2014-03-11 Sold (MLS) $51,500 Hive MLS
• 2013-12-02 Listed $59,900 Hive MLS
• 2013-10-26 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2013-04-26 Listed $59,900 Hive MLS
• 2006-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $421 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.