1813 Mills St · Houston, TX 77026

$484,900

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,204 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2024 2,414 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in ready! Welcome to Hardy Skyline, where urban living meets stylish comfort. These homes feature private driveways for added convenience and security. The open-concept living areas showcase sleek dark flooring, flowing into a kitchen with a quartz island, stainless steel appliances, and a neutral textured backsplash. The primary suite includes two walk-in closets and a spa-like bathroom with a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Enjoy practical features like a washer/dryer closet, ample storage, and front yard space. Select homes include side yards, with rooftop decks offering stunning downtown views. Plus, access to a community dog park and close proximity to local attractions.

Key facts

• Private driveways
• Quartz island
• Two walk-in closets

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAYS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREAS
• QUARTZ ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEUTRAL TEXTURED BACKSPLASH
• TWO WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (64.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (67.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (67.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marshall Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 607 students, 97% FRL); Northside H S (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,168 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,602/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $160,217 (67.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.33% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.66%
• DSCR: 0.30
• GRM: 25.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-31,188
• Equity at exit: $242,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $19,441
• Equity at exit: $394,748

Cash invested: $135,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 25.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,314/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-1,772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,845

Max offer price $171,866

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,225
• Closing costs: $14,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2706 Cochran St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1791	$2,700	$1.51	20d	1	0.66mi
1625 N Main St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	994	$2,354	$2.37	3d	42	0.71mi
410 James St Unit 1031793P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$7,554	$4.74	16d	1	0.80mi
410 James St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$6,750	$4.21	44d	1	0.80mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	8d	1	0.81mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.82mi
2403 Everett St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2093	$2,800	$1.34	44d	1	0.86mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$3,094	$1.55	5d	1	0.90mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	0.91mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	44d	1	0.99mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	44d	1	1.14mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	44d	1	1.16mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	8d	1	1.18mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,013	$1.64	3d	1	1.19mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,045	$1.66	11d	1	1.19mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,056	$1.66	12d	1	1.19mi
15 N Chenevert St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1351	$4,000	$2.96	1d	16	1.23mi
414 Milam St Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1585	$3,845	$2.43	22d	1	1.33mi
414 Milam St Ph 2-4602 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	2158	$8,990	$4.17	44d	1	1.33mi
414 Milam St Unit B1-2003 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$4,513	$2.85	44d	1	1.33mi
409 Travis St Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1495	$3,284	$2.20	3d	1	1.34mi
409 Travis St Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1495	$3,292	$2.20	8d	1	1.34mi
409 Travis St Unit 432 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1495	$3,316	$2.22	11d	1	1.34mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	44d	1	1.35mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	8d	1	1.35mi
414 Milam St Unit 447 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$8,991	$3.71	11d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$9,230	$3.81	14d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,833	$2.42	5d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,833	$2.42	8d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$8,959	$3.70	3d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,857	$2.43	3d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 437 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,857	$2.43	11d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,868	$2.44	5d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,825	$2.41	3d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 447 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$8,973	$3.71	44d	1	1.36mi
413 Travis St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1495	$4,000	$2.68	44d	1	1.37mi
1510 Crockett St Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1912	$2,800	$1.46	44d	1	1.40mi
909 Texas Ave Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1262	$3,129	$2.48	2d	36	1.40mi
1512 Crockett St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1808	$2,800	$1.55	44d	1	1.41mi
915 Texas Ave Unit 420 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2366	$4,655	$1.97	19d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-16
   listed $484,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,314 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,874 · $739/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,560/yr (+$547/mo · 283.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,314
• − Insurance: −$2,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$14,106
• Taxable loss: −$31,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,454
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $484,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,314 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.