1204 88th Ave SE · Tumwater, WA 98501

$350,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1967 0.38 ac lot Est $350k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Discover an exceptional investment opportunity with this duplex situated in a highly desirable Tumwater location, offering quick access to I-5, shopping, parks, and everyday amenities. Each unit features 2 bd and 2 bath, one side with a garage and the other a carport, providing flexible functionality for future tenants. Set on a large lot with ample potential, the property is in rough condition and ready for a full renovation—ideal for investors, flippers, or anyone looking to add value and maximize rental income in a sought-after area.

Key facts

• Quick access to i-5
• Large lot
• Full renovation

Tags

• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-5
• LARGE LOT
• FULL RENOVATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $219/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Peter G Schmidt Elementary (578 students, 45% FRL); George Bush Middle School (747 students, 40% FRL); Tumwater High School (1,111 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $350k implies a 343% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $350,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.37%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,860
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1204 88th Ave SE	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,785 (0%)	0mo	$350,000	$196	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-25,475
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $27,569
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98501

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 16.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,599 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,078/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$756
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,044

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $637	-5% $538	+0% $439	+5% $340	+10% $241
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $297	+0% $439	+5% $581	+10% $723
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $528	base $439	+0.5pp $348	+1.0pp $256

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,598
Total (2 units)			$3,599

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   listed $350,000 Active
3. 1991-06-05
   soldstatus $79,000
4. 1985-05-31
   soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,078 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,078 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,078
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,455
• − Management: −$3,455
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$81
• After-tax cash flow: $5,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tumwater, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 48,067
• Household income: $97,198
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1653.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 5% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -413.86%
• Current HPI: 340.9379
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+430.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $350,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 1985-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,078 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.