27021 Sunset Dr · Tightwad, MO 64735

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1989 0.45 ac lot $15/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just recently returned to the market! Welcome to your Truman Lake retreat, where lake life, comfort, and convenience come together. Perfectly positioned just 4 minutes from Long Shoal Marina, this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers an inviting layout designed for easy everyday living or weekend getaways. A spacious living room addition creates the perfect gathering space for relaxing after a day on the water, hosting family and friends, or simply enjoying the quiet lake-area setting. Step outside and experience what makes this property so functional for lake living. The impressive 20x34 carport provides excellent space for your boat, lake toys, or extra parking, while three sto

Key facts

• 20x34 carport
• Three storage sheds
• Fully furnished

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM ADDITION
• FULLY FURNISHED
• 20X34 CARPORT
• THREE STORAGE SHEDS
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• FISH CLEANING STATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-486/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $82k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#720 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John Boise Middle School (math 37% / reading 40%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 278 students, 99% FRL); Warsaw High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 403 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 61% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $82,293 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-21,263
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-22,043
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64735

• Home prices YoY: -6.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $823 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $295/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $107,853

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-8	+0% $-40	+5% $-73	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-73	+0% $-40	+5% $-8	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-11	base $-40	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-06-03
    pricestatus $115,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-04-11
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-29
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 1999-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $295 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$820/yr (+$68/mo · 278.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$295
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$790
• − Management: −$790
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$2,542
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$610
• After-tax cash flow: $125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Tightwad

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #720
• US rank: #23072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,572

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.70%
• Current HPI: 253.2081
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — WCAR
• 2026-03-29 Listed $150,000 WCAR
• 1999-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $295 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.