18026 N Cave Creek Rd #1 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$35,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 104 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $48/sqft · 14% below area Est $41k · 14% under ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning upgrades on this end lot home, in the gated, 55+ community of Paradise North! This home boasts luxury upgrades, including but not limited to a beautiful marble tiled shower, stainless steel appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and TWO decks (one in the front of the home and one in the back)! Enjoy meeting your neighbors at community events, or by the community pool in those warmer months! Step inside, and unwind in your beautiful new home!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Marble tiled shower
• Community pool

Tags

• MARBLE TILED SHOWER
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TWO DECKS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $712 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.7% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $31,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.22%
• DSCR: 4.88
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,928
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -14.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2120 E Bluefield Ave #141	0.36mi	1/1.0	768 (+6%)	13mo	$45,000	$59	63
2523 E Contention Mine Rd #34	0.39mi	2/1.5 (+1)	728 (0%)	14mo	$50,000	$69	63
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #101	0.05mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (+8%)	21mo	$55,000	$70	62
2523 E Contention Mine Rd #29	0.39mi	1/1.0	704 (-3%)	17mo	$70,000	$99	62
2524 E Contention Mine Rd #45	0.42mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-1%)	17mo	$36,000	$50	60
2502 E Cowan Cir	0.50mi	1/1.0	750 (+3%)	14mo	$169,900	$227	60
2524 E Contention Mine Rd #46	0.44mi	1/1.0	660 (-9%)	14mo	$25,000	$38	52
19225 N Cave Creek Rd N #61	0.74mi	2/1.5 (+1)	758 (+4%)	12mo	$11,000	$15	42
2701 E Utopia Rd #3	0.72mi	1/1.0	644 (-12%)	13mo	$36,000	$56	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $36,172
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.79×
• Total profit: $76,307
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $712

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$795	$1.10	4d	7	0.13mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	0.20mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,312	$2.02	2d	13	0.25mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$1,975	$2.51	4d	9	0.26mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	7d	1	0.29mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,290	$1.34	2d	11	0.44mi
1750 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$999	$1.43	24d	1	0.89mi
16621 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	570	$899	$1.58	7d	1	0.90mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	24d	1	1.01mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	22d	1	1.01mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$856	$1.49	4d	6	1.01mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	24d	1	1.01mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 312 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	22d	1	1.01mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 112 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	24d	1	1.01mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	24d	1	1.01mi
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,354	$1.36	2d	22	1.12mi
1450 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,027	$1.07	2d	93	1.16mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,912	$2.08	2d	16	1.24mi
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,385	$1.52	1d	10	1.25mi
16437 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$849	$1.23	2d	4	1.29mi
16645 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	483	$1,297	$2.68	2d	6	1.29mi
2826 E Le Marche Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	725	$1,000	$1.38	5d	1	1.36mi
2220 E Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,424	$1.67	3d	62	1.41mi
2814 E Kathleen Rd #102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	24d	1	1.47mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   status $35,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $35,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $35,000 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Stunning upgrades on this end lot home, in the gated, 55+ community of Paradise North! This home boasts luxury upgrades, including but not limited to a beautiful marble tiled shower, stainless steel appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and TWO decks (one in the front of the home and one in the back)! Enjoy meeting your neighbors at community events, or by the community pool in those warmer months! Step inside, and unwind in your beautiful new home!

17. 2026-05-05
    price $40,000 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Stunning upgrades on this end lot home, in the gated, 55+ community of Paradise North! This home boasts luxury upgrades, including but not limited to a beautiful marble tiled shower, stainless steel appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and TWO decks (one in the front of the home and one in the back)! Enjoy meeting your neighbors at community events, or by the community pool in those warmer months! Step inside, and unwind in your beautiful new home!

18. 2026-04-09
    price $50,000 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Stunning upgrades on this end lot home, in the gated, 55+ community of Paradise North! This home boasts luxury upgrades, including but not limited to a beautiful marble tiled shower, stainless steel appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and TWO decks (one in the front of the home and one in the back)! Enjoy meeting your neighbors at community events, or by the community pool in those warmer months! Step inside, and unwind in your beautiful new home!

19. 2026-03-06
    listed $59,900 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Stunning upgrades on this end lot home, in the gated, 55+ community of Paradise North! This home boasts luxury upgrades, including but not limited to a beautiful marble tiled shower, stainless steel appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and TWO decks (one in the front of the home and one in the back)! Enjoy meeting your neighbors at community events, or by the community pool in those warmer months! Step inside, and unwind in your beautiful new home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $8,496
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,039
• After-tax cash flow: $6,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home in Paradise North is in good condition with recent upgrades, offering a move-in-ready experience with potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality
• Resale Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms enhances the home's overall appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms enhances the home's overall appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-41.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $35,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $40,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $59,900 ARMLS