Pierce Plan · Montgomery, TX 77356

$254,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,668 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Great room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• COVERED FIRST-FLOOR PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,847.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery El (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D+, #849 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 595 students, 45% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1304 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,078 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.30%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,847
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -17.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
602 Amber Falls Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+6%)	1mo	$259,340	$146	79
833 High Mesa Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+6%)	2mo	$269,920	$152	79
610 Amber Falls Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+6%)	2mo	$261,900	$147	79
206 Prairie Ridge Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,762 (+6%)	1mo	$304,420	$173	78
574 Ruby Bend Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,515 (-9%)	1mo	$281,020	$185	77
905 Silver Buckle Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+6%)	1mo	$264,410	$149	76
657 Amber Falls Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,846 (+11%)	1mo	$299,990	$163	72
830 High Mesa Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-9%)	2mo	$239,710	$159	69
817 High Mesa	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-9%)	3mo	$254,980	$169	67
810 High Mesa	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-9%)	4mo	$259,990	$172	66
114 Longhorn Run Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,902 (+14%)	0mo	$319,900	$168	62
415 Terra Vista Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+14%)	3mo	$206,500	$109	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-80,592
• Equity at exit: $45,901

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-126,323
• Equity at exit: $26,617

Cash invested: $86,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.6 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,999 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1304
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,618/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,693

Max offer price $252,724

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-168	-5% $-275	+0% $-381	+5% $-487	+10% $-594
Rent	-10% $-556	-5% $-468	+0% $-381	+5% $-294	+10% $-206
Rate	-1.0pp $-226	-0.5pp $-303	base $-381	+0.5pp $-461	+1.0pp $-542

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,962
• Closing costs: $9,235
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 Amber Falls Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,975	$1.59	93d	1	0.14mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 612 Ruby Bend Ln, Montgomery TX 77356Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-06-11
• Financial info: List price $254,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family home (Pierce plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1668

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)Plan name: Pierce

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $254,990 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $254,990 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $254,990 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $254,990 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $254,990 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $254,990 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $254,990 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $254,990 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $254,990 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $254,990 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $254,990 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $254,990 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $254,990 Active 35 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $254,990 Active 34 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 33 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 32 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $254,990 Active 31 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $254,990 Active 30 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $254,990 Active 29 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $254,990 Active 27 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $254,990 Active 26 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $254,990 Active 25 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $254,990 Active 24 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 23 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 22 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $254,990 Active 21 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $254,990 Active 20 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $254,990 Active 19 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $254,990 Active 18 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $254,990 Active 17 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $254,990 Active 16 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $254,990 Active 14 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $254,990 Active 12 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 11 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 8 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $254,990 Active 7 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $254,990 Active 6 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $254,990 Active 5 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 3 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on marketlisting id $254,990 Active 2 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $254,990 Active 83 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,990 Active 82 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,990 Active 81 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 78 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 77 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 76 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,618
• − Insurance: −$1,539
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$8,956
• Taxable loss: −$10,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,417
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,340–$25,020 screening

This Pierce Plan home in Montgomery, TX is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Montgomery El D+ TX #849/4,322 Nat'l #12,529/41,679 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 612 Ruby Bend Ln, Montgomery TX 77356Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-06-11
• Financial info: List price $254,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family home (Pierce plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1668

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)Plan name: Pierce