4651 Mallow St Unit A-B · Houston, TX 77051

$369,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Condo · 158 Days on market

Built 2023 $206/sqft · 7% below area Est $398k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your investment propertyl! This stunning, brand-new construction duplex offers the perfect blend of modern elegance and comfort. Step into each spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom unit, you'll be greeted by soaring 9" ceilings that create an open and airy feel throughout the home. The kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting sleek granite countertops and top-of-the-line stainless steel appliances. The wood-like tile flooring adds a touch of warmth and sophistication. The generous living area is perfect for entertaining guests or relaxing after a long day. The primary bedroom is a private oasis, complete with its own luxurious bathroom. Start your day off right in the double vanity sinks, and enjoy the convenience of a spacious walk-in closet, providing ample storage. This duplex is conveniently situated close to downtown, offering easy access to dining, shopping, and entertainment. Additionally, the medical center is just a short distance away. Schedule Your Showing Today!

Key facts

• Generous living area
• Soaring 9 ceilings
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION DUPLEX
• SOARING 9 CEILINGS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WOOD LIKE TILE FLOORING
• GENEROUS LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-857 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (41.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,151/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,139 (41.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.93%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,640
• List price: $369,900
• Delta: -6.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4713 Mallow St Unit E/F	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,936 (+8%)	4mo	$440,000	$227	79
5103 Mallow St Unit A/B	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,936 (+8%)	2mo	$394,000	$204	56
5105 Mallow St Unit A/B	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,936 (+8%)	2mo	$389,000	$201	56
5105 Mallow St Unit C/D	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,936 (+8%)	8mo	$399,990	$207	51
5107 Mallow St Unit A/B	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,936 (+8%)	9mo	$408,000	$211	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $150,825
• Equity at exit: $333,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $495,630
• Equity at exit: $718,634

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$462 /mo · $5,548/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-857

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,236

Max offer price $245,934

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	0.12mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	0.39mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	24d	1	0.45mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	0.48mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	43d	1	0.54mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	12d	1	0.59mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	24d	1	0.63mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	17d	1	0.69mi
4835 Sunflower St Unit 1546466P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$4,516	$2.40	15d	1	0.70mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	43d	1	0.80mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	24d	1	0.80mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	43d	1	0.88mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	43d	1	0.88mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	12d	1	0.89mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	11d	1	0.89mi
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	43d	1	1.08mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	43d	1	1.12mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	1.14mi
5201 Kenilwood Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2442	$1,725	$0.71	14d	1	1.14mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	20d	1	1.19mi
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	3d	1	1.23mi
5314 Longmeadow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1646	$1,900	$1.15	43d	1	1.26mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	43d	1	1.36mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	43d	1	1.44mi
7339 Krueger Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2440	$1,900	$0.78	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,900 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,900 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,900 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,900 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,900 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $369,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,900 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,900 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-01-11
    listed $369,900 Active 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    Welcome to your investment propertyl! This stunning, brand-new construction duplex offers the perfect blend of modern elegance and comfort. Step into each spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom unit, you'll be greeted by soaring 9" ceilings that create an open and airy feel throughout the home. The kitchen is a chef's delight, boasting sleek granite countertops and top-of-the-line stainless steel appliances. The wood-like tile flooring adds a touch of warmth and sophistication. The generous living area is perfect for entertaining guests or relaxing after a long day. The primary bedroom is a private oasis, complete with its own luxurious bathroom. Start your day off right in the double vanity sinks, and enjoy the convenience of a spacious walk-in closet, providing ample storage. This duplex is conveniently situated close to downtown, offering easy access to dining, shopping, and entertainment. Additionally, the medical center is just a short distance away. Schedule Your Showing Today!

13. 2023-02-21
    status Pending
14. 2023-02-20
    historical
15. 2023-02-09
    listed $373,499 Active
16. 2022-12-07
    historical
17. 2022-11-17
    listed $367,499 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$5,548
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$17,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,126
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-11 Listed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2023-02-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-09 Listed $373,499 HARMLS
• 2022-12-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-17 Listed $367,499 HARMLS