29 Arbor Club Dr #103 · Palm Valley, FL 32082

$229,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · Condo public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1992 $526/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this recently renovated condo and you've found your new beach home. This two bedroom two bath has been completely freshened up with new paint and flooring. Just steps to the Clubhouse, fitness center , and pool and only a short bike ride to the beach. Come see what the Ponte Vedra lifestyle is all about. Stop by the Open House Saturday from 12-3 and register to win a FREE iPan.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• New flooring
• New paint

Tags

• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• STEPS TO THE CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Monthly association fee of $526; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, and a community pool (not private)

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; Property attached; One level entry (entry level 1); 3 total stories; Faces east; Used for residential multi-family
• Construction: Information not provided
• Exterior features: Covered, screened patio/porch; Pond view/waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Primary bathroom with tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (15.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.3% in Palm Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#462 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $181k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,596 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.75%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-38,649
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $195
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32082

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,361 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,922/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$526
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,615

Max offer price $193,596

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-71	-5% $-136	+0% $-200	+5% $-265	+10% $-330
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-294	+0% $-200	+5% $-107	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-85	-0.5pp $-142	base $-200	+0.5pp $-260	+1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Arbor Club Dr #103 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	8d	1	0.07mi
19 Arbor Club Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,095	$1.88	24d	1	0.08mi
11 Arbor Club Dr #214 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,200	$1.97	24d	1	0.09mi
100 Fairway Park Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	15d	3	0.16mi
908 Shoreline Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$2,100	$2.03	4d	1	0.18mi
71 Ponte Vedra Colony Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$3,200	$3.37	24d	1	0.39mi
46 Ponte Vedra Colony Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	22d	1	0.39mi
650 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit E Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$3,995	$2.84	24d	1	0.67mi
622 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit D4 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$4,500	$3.12	24d	1	0.69mi
657 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit 657C Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$6,500	$5.30	24d	1	0.73mi
562 Ponte Vedra Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	1.5	1453	$4,500	$3.10	24d	1	0.84mi
130 Veracruz Dr #722 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	991	$2,000	$2.02	24d	1	0.87mi
230 Colima Ct Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	990	$2,148	$2.17	8d	1	0.87mi
160 Veracruz Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,188	$2.05	24d	1	0.96mi
43 Tifton Way N Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1415	$3,950	$2.79	24d	1	1.11mi
100 Ironwood Dr #133 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,295	$2.05	24d	1	1.18mi
743 Spinnakers Reach Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$4,500	$6.43	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $526 · $6,312/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 390-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 388-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $229,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,922 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,922 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,922
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,267
• − Management: −$2,267
• − HOA: −$6,312
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$6,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,456
• After-tax cash flow: $-949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Valley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #8349

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Valley, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,289
• Household income: $124,558
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -435.26%
• Current HPI: 306.134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+26.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $229,000 realMLS
• 2005-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $180,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,922 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.