4915 Swegle Rd NE #51 · Four Corners, OR 97301

$22,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1972 $31/sqft · 64% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity in a desirable 55+ community with one of the larger fenced yards in the park! This very cute 2 bed, 1 bath home offers great outdoor space for gardening, pets, relaxing, or entertaining. Full of charm and potential, the home features forced air electric heat, a carport, storage/workshop shed, a gas stove, gas dryer hookup, and gas water heater. All appliances are included, including the refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, and dryer. Functional layout with bedrooms tucked toward the back of the home, a spacious living area, and an updated kitchen with plenty of cabinet space. Roof was replaced in October 2019. Conveniently located near the community pool, recreation room, and

Key facts

• Fenced yards
• Carport
• Outdoor space

Tags

• FENCED YARDS
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• FORCED AIR ELECTRIC HEAT
• CARPORT
• STORAGE WORKSHOP SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty negotiable; Appliances included: refrigerator, stove, dishwasher, washer, dryer; Possession at COE
• HOA & community: Located in a 55+ community (Sunset Village); Park rent includes water, sewer, and access to the swimming pool

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; 1972 construction; Blue exterior color; Front entry
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Pier foundation; Manufactured home — Commodore Pacifica model; Serial number 12760
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Covered front and back porches / covered deck; Landscaped yard; Storage/workshop shed; Park amenities include pool and recreation room (park rent includes water, sewer, swimming pool)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range included; Dishwasher; Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom (main)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: High-speed internet access available; Combination dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $968 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 59.1% vs local median 3.9% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in OR, #2,680 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: crime D-.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swegle Elementary School (520 students, 74% FRL); Mckay High School (2,311 students, 102% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 53% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $152 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $660 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $21,670 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 59.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 188.53%
• DSCR: 9.39
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,981
• List price: $22,000
• Delta: -63.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.76×
• Total profit: $53,972
• Equity at exit: $3,280

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.94×
• Total profit: $110,516
• Equity at exit: $1,902

Cash invested: $6,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97301

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$115
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $212/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $968

Break-even live

Break-even rent $180

Max offer price $22,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $980	-5% $974	+0% $968	+5% $962	+10% $955
Rent	-10% $857	-5% $912	+0% $968	+5% $1,023	+10% $1,079
Rate	-1.0pp $979	-0.5pp $973	base $968	+0.5pp $962	+1.0pp $956

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,500
• Closing costs: $660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4704 Center St NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	658	$1,472	$2.24	14d	15	0.83mi
4154 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$1,375	$1.71	14d	6	0.89mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	771	$1,350	$1.75	14d	11	1.15mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 43 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	604	$1,150	$1.90	24d	1	1.15mi
4886 Silverton Rd NE Unit 4/Office location Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	625	$1,100	$1.76	44d	1	1.21mi
2489 Coral Ave NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	817	$1,301	$1.59	14d	11	1.25mi
4880 Silverton Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	650	$1,100	$1.69	44d	1	1.26mi
3695 D St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,650	$1.59	44d	3	1.32mi
102 Greencrest St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,918	$2.10	14d	25	1.47mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $22,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $22,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $22,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $22,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $22,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $22,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $22,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $22,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-05-14
   listed $25,000 Active 966-char remark
10. 2026-05-06
    historical
11. 2026-01-16
    price $29,000
12. 2025-08-28
    listed $36,500 Active
13. 2020-10-12
    historical
14. 2020-10-11
    listed $44,900
15. 2019-09-05
    soldstatus $40,000 Sold
16. 2019-08-15
    status Pending
17. 2019-08-08
    listed $34,900 Active
18. 2018-04-09
    soldstatus $27,700 Sold
19. 2018-02-10
    historical Active under Contract
20. 2018-02-09
    price $28,900
21. 2018-02-09
    price $30,800
22. 2018-01-23
    listed $28,900 Active
23. 2012-06-01
    historical
24. 2012-02-21
    price $7,900
25. 2011-11-11
    listed $9,900 Active
26. 1996-04-11
    soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $212 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $213 · $18/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,232
• − Property taxes: −$212
• − Insurance: −$110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$640
• Taxable income: $11,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,872
• After-tax cash flow: $8,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #2680

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute C+ Cost of living B+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Four Corners, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 57,574
• Household income: $60,422
• Rent vs Own: 57.2% rent · 42.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3089.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 19% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -548.17%
• Current HPI: 335.8199
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.70%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+25.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — WVMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $22,000 WVMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $25,000 WVMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $29,000 WVMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $36,500 WVMLS
• 2020-10-12 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2020-10-11 Listed $44,900 WVMLS
• 2019-09-05 Sold (MLS) $40,000 WVMLS
• 2019-08-15 Pending — WVMLS
• 2019-08-08 Listed $34,900 WVMLS
• 2018-04-09 Sold (MLS) $27,700 WVMLS
• 2018-02-10 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2018-02-09 Price Changed $28,900 WVMLS
• 2018-02-09 Price Changed $30,800 WVMLS
• 2018-01-23 Listed $28,900 WVMLS
• 2012-06-01 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2012-02-21 Price Changed $7,900 WVMLS
• 2011-11-11 Listed $9,900 WVMLS
• 1996-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2018): $212 · +141.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.