21 Oak Bend Ln · O'Fallon, MO 63376

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,254 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1977 6,599 sqft lot Est $297k · 16% under $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on Market!! Designer renovated, 3 BD, 2 BA home on a cul de sac lot in a fantastic St. Peters location close to O’Fallon! This lovely split-foyer has lux vinyl plank floors freshly installed, on-trend wall colors & an open, spacious flr plan. Features inc special order 42 inch, soft-close white cabinets, w/ lux hardware, subway tile b-splash, gas range, stainless steel appliances & chef cart, butcher block counter tops w/ slider to the patio & back yard, industrial stair railings, 6 pnl doors, ceramic tile flrs in the ll bath & double sinks in the main. LL Fam/Rec Rm w/lux vinyl plank flrs, W/B FP w/brick surround & Laundry Rm. Impressive Ext. w/p brick, cedar planter boxes, vinyl siding, coach lights, storm door & an O/S 2 car garage mostly finished w/ workbench, paver patio & a level, fenced yard. Highly sought-after Ft Zumwalt schools. Enjoy nearby parks, shopping, restaurants & services. There is easy access to Hwys 70 & 364 & HWY K. The St. Peters Rec Plex is a short commute.

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Cozy fireplace
• Granite countertops

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VINYL AND LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,254 (public records); Above-grade finished area reported as 912 (public records); Below-grade finished area reported as 456 (public records)
• HOA & community: Oak Bend HOA Board; HOA fee $50 annually (covers other items)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water available; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Back yard fencing; Subdivided lot; Lot dimensions 114x60x114x60

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on upper level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one full bath on main level, one full bath on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Basement fireplace (wood burning)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($50/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ft. Zumwalt R-II (suburban): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #14 of 324 in MO (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Progress South Elem. (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #180 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 678 students, 19% FRL); Ft. Zumwalt South High (math 57% / reading 70%, grade B-, #24 of 521 statewide, top 4%, 1,334 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,936 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,198
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Oak Forest Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,255 (+0%)	1mo	$285,000	$227	94
7 Butternut Stage Ct	0.24mi	3/3.0	1,237 (-1%)	2mo	$335,000	$271	81
2 Butternut Stage Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-3%)	2mo	$309,000	$254	80
10 Barrington Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+1%)	1mo	$299,900	$237	75
34 Aspen Pointe Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+6%)	7mo	$269,900	$204	71
32 Queensboro Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+9%)	1mo	$349,900	$255	65
191 Autumn Chase Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+1%)	9mo	$265,000	$208	63
8 Archers Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,145 (-9%)	4mo	$249,900	$218	61
19 Deerpath Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+11%)	5mo	$248,000	$179	60
256 Barrington Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+4%)	7mo	$300,000	$231	59
172 Autumn Chase Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-10%)	1mo	$279,900	$249	51
27 Laura Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (-13%)	5mo	$325,000	$298	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-40,921
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-38,042
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63376

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,059 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,443/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,054

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43 Kingspointe Dr Saint Peters, MO	3.0	2.0	1072	$2,125	$1.98	23d	1	0.34mi
25 Joan Dr Saint Peters, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	23d	1	0.41mi
2 Aspen Pointe Dr Saint Peters, MO	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,170	$1.40	1d	1	0.47mi
106 Laura Dr Saint Peters, MO	2.0	1.0	1286	$1,650	$1.28	11d	1	0.47mi
381 Erin Dr Saint Peters, MO	3.0	2.5	1288	$2,500	$1.94	23d	1	0.60mi
10 Kingsmont Ct Saint Peters, MO	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,446	$1.64	21d	1	0.70mi
1000 Bramblett Xing O'Fallon, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,945	$1.95	3d	15	0.86mi
333 Bramblett Hls O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1139	$1,500	$1.32	23d	1	0.90mi
256 Cherrywood Parc Dr O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1590	$2,276	$1.43	3d	1	0.95mi
172 Weatherby Landing Dr O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1748	$2,300	$1.32	23d	1	1.11mi
713 Plaza Dr O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	4d	1	1.29mi
713 Plaza Dr O Fallon, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,200	$1.47	14d	1	1.29mi
704 Highland Dr O Fallon, MO	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,751	$1.63	7d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $250,000 Active
3. 2024-04-24
   historical $2,115
4. 2024-04-23
   historical $2,115
5. 2024-04-05
   price $2,115
6. 2024-04-05
   price $2,115
7. 2024-04-03
   listed $2,060
8. 2024-04-03
   listed $2,060
9. 2020-11-12
   soldstatus Closed 1046-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

   Back on Market!! Designer renovated, 3 BD, 2 BA home on a cul de sac lot in a fantastic St. Peters location close to O’Fallon! This lovely split-foyer has lux vinyl plank floors freshly installed, on-trend wall colors & an open, spacious flr plan. Features inc special order 42 inch, soft-close white cabinets, w/ lux hardware, subway tile b-splash, gas range, stainless steel appliances & chef cart, butcher block counter tops w/ slider to the patio & back yard, industrial stair railings, 6 pnl doors, ceramic tile flrs in the ll bath & double sinks in the main. LL Fam/Rec Rm w/lux vinyl plank flrs, W/B FP w/brick surround & Laundry Rm. Impressive Ext. w/p brick, cedar planter boxes, vinyl siding, coach lights, storm door & an O/S 2 car garage mostly finished w/ workbench, paver patio & a level, fenced yard. Highly sought-after Ft Zumwalt schools. Enjoy nearby parks, shopping, restaurants & services. There is easy access to Hwys 70 & 364 & HWY K. The St. Peters Rec Plex is a short commute.

10. 2020-11-12
    soldstatus $199,900

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    Back on Market!! Designer renovated, 3 BD, 2 BA home on a cul de sac lot in a fantastic St. Peters location close to O’Fallon! This lovely split-foyer has lux vinyl plank floors freshly installed, on-trend wall colors & an open, spacious flr plan. Features inc special order 42 inch, soft-close white cabinets, w/ lux hardware, subway tile b-splash, gas range, stainless steel appliances & chef cart, butcher block counter tops w/ slider to the patio & back yard, industrial stair railings, 6 pnl doors, ceramic tile flrs in the ll bath & double sinks in the main. LL Fam/Rec Rm w/lux vinyl plank flrs, W/B FP w/brick surround & Laundry Rm. Impressive Ext. w/p brick, cedar planter boxes, vinyl siding, coach lights, storm door & an O/S 2 car garage mostly finished w/ workbench, paver patio & a level, fenced yard. Highly sought-after Ft Zumwalt schools. Enjoy nearby parks, shopping, restaurants & services. There is easy access to Hwys 70 & 364 & HWY K. The St. Peters Rec Plex is a short commute.

11. 2020-10-20
    status Pending 1046-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    Back on Market!! Designer renovated, 3 BD, 2 BA home on a cul de sac lot in a fantastic St. Peters location close to O’Fallon! This lovely split-foyer has lux vinyl plank floors freshly installed, on-trend wall colors & an open, spacious flr plan. Features inc special order 42 inch, soft-close white cabinets, w/ lux hardware, subway tile b-splash, gas range, stainless steel appliances & chef cart, butcher block counter tops w/ slider to the patio & back yard, industrial stair railings, 6 pnl doors, ceramic tile flrs in the ll bath & double sinks in the main. LL Fam/Rec Rm w/lux vinyl plank flrs, W/B FP w/brick surround & Laundry Rm. Impressive Ext. w/p brick, cedar planter boxes, vinyl siding, coach lights, storm door & an O/S 2 car garage mostly finished w/ workbench, paver patio & a level, fenced yard. Highly sought-after Ft Zumwalt schools. Enjoy nearby parks, shopping, restaurants & services. There is easy access to Hwys 70 & 364 & HWY K. The St. Peters Rec Plex is a short commute.

12. 2020-10-07
    historical Active Under Contract 1046-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    Back on Market!! Designer renovated, 3 BD, 2 BA home on a cul de sac lot in a fantastic St. Peters location close to O’Fallon! This lovely split-foyer has lux vinyl plank floors freshly installed, on-trend wall colors & an open, spacious flr plan. Features inc special order 42 inch, soft-close white cabinets, w/ lux hardware, subway tile b-splash, gas range, stainless steel appliances & chef cart, butcher block counter tops w/ slider to the patio & back yard, industrial stair railings, 6 pnl doors, ceramic tile flrs in the ll bath & double sinks in the main. LL Fam/Rec Rm w/lux vinyl plank flrs, W/B FP w/brick surround & Laundry Rm. Impressive Ext. w/p brick, cedar planter boxes, vinyl siding, coach lights, storm door & an O/S 2 car garage mostly finished w/ workbench, paver patio & a level, fenced yard. Highly sought-after Ft Zumwalt schools. Enjoy nearby parks, shopping, restaurants & services. There is easy access to Hwys 70 & 364 & HWY K. The St. Peters Rec Plex is a short commute.

13. 2020-09-28
    listed $200,000 Active 1046-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    Back on Market!! Designer renovated, 3 BD, 2 BA home on a cul de sac lot in a fantastic St. Peters location close to O’Fallon! This lovely split-foyer has lux vinyl plank floors freshly installed, on-trend wall colors & an open, spacious flr plan. Features inc special order 42 inch, soft-close white cabinets, w/ lux hardware, subway tile b-splash, gas range, stainless steel appliances & chef cart, butcher block counter tops w/ slider to the patio & back yard, industrial stair railings, 6 pnl doors, ceramic tile flrs in the ll bath & double sinks in the main. LL Fam/Rec Rm w/lux vinyl plank flrs, W/B FP w/brick surround & Laundry Rm. Impressive Ext. w/p brick, cedar planter boxes, vinyl siding, coach lights, storm door & an O/S 2 car garage mostly finished w/ workbench, paver patio & a level, fenced yard. Highly sought-after Ft Zumwalt schools. Enjoy nearby parks, shopping, restaurants & services. There is easy access to Hwys 70 & 364 & HWY K. The St. Peters Rec Plex is a short commute.

14. 2019-08-29
    price $202,900
15. 2018-07-20
    status Pending
16. 2018-07-19
    soldstatus $112,300
17. 2018-07-16
    soldstatus Closed
18. 2018-07-02
    historical Contingent (No Kickout)
19. 2018-06-27
    listed $117,000 Active
20. 1982-09-01
    soldstatus $43,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,443 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,443 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,443
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,022
• After-tax cash flow: $1,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ft. Zumwalt R-II
• NCES district ID: 2908370
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,817
• Composite: 51.04/100
• National rank: #1772
• State rank: #14 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 74,962
• Household income: $96,393
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 964.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -315.50%
• Current HPI: 230.3362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+469.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Listed $250,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-24 Rental Removed $2,115 RENTLY
• 2024-04-23 Rental Removed $2,115 RENT.
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed $2,115 RENT.
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed $2,115 RENTLY
• 2024-04-03 Listed for Rent $2,060 RENTLY
• 2024-04-03 Listed for Rent $2,060 RENT.
• 2020-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $199,900 Public Records
• 2020-11-12 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-07 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-28 Listed $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-29 Price Changed $202,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $112,300 Public Records
• 2018-07-16 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-02 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-27 Listed $117,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1982-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,443 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.