969 Plantation Rd · Key Largo, FL 33037

$389,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 191 Days on market

Built 1985 5,000 sqft lot Est $773k · 50% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home on a large lot with endless potential. This property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, storage, or expansion. The home is perfect for those looking to renovate and make it their own, or tear down and build a new home tailored to your vision. Located in a quiet area with easy access to shopping, dining, and local attractions. Great opportunity for investors, builders, or anyone looking for a property with strong potential and value.

Key facts

• Local attractions
• Large lot
• Outdoor living

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• LOCAL ATTRACTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed (no restrictions)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Faces southwest
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Shingle roof; Year built: Unknown
• Exterior features: Deck; Less than quarter acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s); Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: First floor entry; Main-level primary bedroom; Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Utility room; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-33/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $366k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $342k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 1.5% in Key Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#337 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 430 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,665/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $273k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→33/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $342,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.67%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $772,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Vaca Rd	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,392 (+4%)	13mo	$800,000	$575	73
434 Big Pine Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+4%)	21mo	$775,000	$552	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-63,321
• Equity at exit: $58,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-55,824
• Equity at exit: $33,634

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33037

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 430
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,665 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,232/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$770
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,668

Max offer price $388,514

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $107	+0% $-3	+5% $-113	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-148	+0% $-3	+5% $142	+10% $287
Rate	-1.0pp $193	-0.5pp $96	base $-3	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $389,000 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,000 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,000 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,000 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,000 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,000 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,000 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,000 Active 171 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    status Active
19. 2026-05-07
    status Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home on a large lot with endless potential. This property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, storage, or expansion. The home is perfect for those looking to renovate and make it their own, or tear down and build a new home tailored to your vision. Located in a quiet area with easy access to shopping, dining, and local attractions. Great opportunity for investors, builders, or anyone looking for a property with strong potential and value.

20. 2026-03-24
    status Pending
21. 2025-12-05
    historical Contingent (Show) 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home on a large lot with endless potential. This property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, storage, or expansion. The home is perfect for those looking to renovate and make it their own, or tear down and build a new home tailored to your vision. Located in a quiet area with easy access to shopping, dining, and local attractions. Great opportunity for investors, builders, or anyone looking for a property with strong potential and value.

22. 2025-10-23
    listed $389,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home on a large lot with endless potential. This property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, storage, or expansion. The home is perfect for those looking to renovate and make it their own, or tear down and build a new home tailored to your vision. Located in a quiet area with easy access to shopping, dining, and local attractions. Great opportunity for investors, builders, or anyone looking for a property with strong potential and value.

23. 2025-10-23
    listed $389,000 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home on a large lot with endless potential. This property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, storage, or expansion. The home is perfect for those looking to renovate and make it their own, or tear down and build a new home tailored to your vision. Located in a quiet area with easy access to shopping, dining, and local attractions. Great opportunity for investors, builders, or anyone looking for a property with strong potential and value.

24. 2025-10-19
    historical
25. 2025-09-15
    price $395,000
26. 2025-06-10
    price $460,000
27. 2025-04-18
    price $485,000
28. 2025-01-23
    price $539,000
29. 2024-10-24
    listed $550,000 Active
30. 2024-09-30
    soldstatus $273,200
31. 2024-09-27
    soldstatus $273,137 Closed
32. 2024-09-24
    status Pending
33. 2024-09-11
    historical Active Under Contract
34. 2024-08-19
    price $305,000
35. 2024-07-14
    listed $315,000 Active
36. 2024-07-08
    historical
37. 2024-07-05
    price $320,000
38. 2024-06-11
    price $330,000
39. 2024-05-20
    price $340,000
40. 2024-05-06
    price $350,000
41. 2024-04-05
    price $359,000
42. 2024-03-31
    price $364,999
43. 2024-03-25
    price $370,000
44. 2024-03-18
    price $375,000
45. 2024-02-27
    price $380,000
46. 2024-02-21
    price $384,500
47. 2024-01-25
    price $385,000
48. 2024-01-15
    price $390,000
49. 2024-01-05
    listed $400,000 Active
50. 2023-11-07
    soldstatus $345,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,232 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,232 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 33 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$3,232
• − Insurance: −$7,064
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,518
• − Management: −$3,518
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$6,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,551
• After-tax cash flow: $1,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Key Largo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #5850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Key Largo, FL
• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• City population: 14,770
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,770
• Household income: $86,533
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -369.26%
• Current HPI: 193.7864
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.92%
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5.1% since first listed

41 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — FLKMLS
• 2026-03-24 Pending — MARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Contingent — FLKMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $389,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $389,000 MARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $395,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $460,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $485,000 FLKMLS
• 2025-01-23 Price Changed $539,000 FLKMLS
• 2024-10-24 Listed $550,000 FLKMLS
• 2024-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $273,200 Public Records
• 2024-09-27 Sold (MLS) $273,137 MARMLS
• 2024-09-24 Pending — MARMLS
• 2024-09-11 Contingent — MARMLS
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $305,000 MARMLS
• 2024-07-14 Listed $315,000 MARMLS
• 2024-07-08 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2024-07-05 Price Changed $320,000 MARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $330,000 MARMLS
• 2024-05-20 Price Changed $340,000 MARMLS
• 2024-05-06 Price Changed $350,000 MARMLS
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed $359,000 MARMLS
• 2024-03-31 Price Changed $364,999 MARMLS
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $370,000 MARMLS
• 2024-03-18 Price Changed $375,000 MARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $380,000 MARMLS
• 2024-02-21 Price Changed $384,500 MARMLS
• 2024-01-25 Price Changed $385,000 MARMLS
• 2024-01-15 Price Changed $390,000 MARMLS
• 2024-01-05 Listed $400,000 MARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $345,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-03 Sold (MLS) $345,000 FLKMLS
• 2023-11-03 Sold (MLS) $345,000 MARMLS
• 2023-10-24 Pending — FLKMLS
• 2023-10-24 Pending — MARMLS
• 2023-10-23 Contingent — FLKMLS
• 2023-10-22 Contingent — MARMLS
• 2023-09-12 Listed $370,000 FLKMLS
• 2023-09-11 Listed $370,000 MARMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,232 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.