42 Tarte Rd · Roche Harbor, WA 98250

$875,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,823 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2004 1.41 ac lot Est $788k · 11% over $40/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on 1.4 private, forested acres just minutes from Roche Harbor Resort, this single-story home offers the perfect blend of modern comfort and relaxed island living. The light-filled open-concept design seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, highlighted by granite countertops and timeless finishes throughout. Thoughtful features include multiple pocket sliding doors, skylights that invite natural light, a utility room with sink, and private deck access from the primary suite. Step outside to more than 180 sq. ft. of decking overlooking the adjacent lawn - ideal for entertaining or quiet enjoyment of the peaceful setting. The property also includes several outbuildin

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Granite countertops
• Skylights

Tags

• PRIVATE FORESTED ACRES
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MULTIPLE POCKET SLIDING DOORS
• SKYLIGHTS
• UTILITY ROOM WITH SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Bridle Trails Estates; Lot size approximately 1.41 acres; Topography: level to partial slope
• Financial info: Financing options: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $475 annual fee covering road maintenance; Community trails

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Detached carport; Driveway parking; RV parking; Covered parking for 3 vehicles
• Security: Partially fenced
• Utilities: Electric and propane energy sources; Community water (Roche Harbor); Septic system; Power provided by OPALCO; Internet via RockIsland
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Main level entry; Southwest-facing; Has a view; Good condition
• Construction: Built on lot; Wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation; Effective year built 2004
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Patio; Partially fenced yard; Outbuildings; Shop; RV parking; High-speed internet available; Fruit trees; Garden space; Wooded setting; Secluded location; Adjacent to public land; Corner lot; Paved access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace; French doors; Skylights
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $875k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($171k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $875k).
• Recommended offer: $862k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.8% vs local median 0.5% in Roche Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• San Juan Island School District (rural): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #36 of 291 in WA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Friday Harbor Elementary School (321 students, 38% FRL); Friday Harbor High School (245 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $245k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($862k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $875k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $861,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.69%
• DSCR: 4.10
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $787,536
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
59 Tarte Rd	0.09mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,794 (-2%)	20mo	$775,000	$432	70
176 Wildflower Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,017 (+11%)	16mo	$399,000	$198	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $764,472
• Equity at exit: $130,465

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.48×
• Total profit: $1,832,793
• Equity at exit: $75,654

Cash invested: $245,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98250

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax from tax record: −$529 /mo · $6,343/yr
• Insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $14,228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,990

Max offer price $875,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14,724	-5% $14,476	+0% $14,228	+5% $13,981	+10% $13,733
Rent	-10% $12,253	-5% $13,241	+0% $14,228	+5% $15,216	+10% $16,203
Rate	-1.0pp $14,669	-0.5pp $14,451	base $14,228	+0.5pp $14,002	+1.0pp $13,771

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $218,750
• Closing costs: $26,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Cobblestone Ln Friday Harbor, WA	3.0	3.5	1820	$25,000	$13.74	45d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $875,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $875,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $875,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $875,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $875,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $875,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $875,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $875,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $875,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $875,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $875,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $875,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $875,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $875,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-06-02
    listed $875,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,343 · $529/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,575 · $715/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,232/yr (+$186/mo · 35.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥76°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,014
• − Property taxes: −$6,343
• − Insurance: −$4,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$25,455
• Taxable income: $166,334
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$39,920
• After-tax cash flow: $130,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Island School District
• NCES district ID: 5307650
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $58,476
• Composite: 56.64/100
• National rank: #2434
• State rank: #36 of 291 in WA

Livability — Roche Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roche Harbor, WA
• Population (ZIP): 9,127

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,439 people
• By 2030: 17,871 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 18,236 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 18,468 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 19,749 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 20,348 · +16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.4) · D 73.7% · R 22.3% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.9pp · 2024: 51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.4 2020: D+50.5 2016: D+41.6 2012: D+37.5 2008: D+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.89%
• Current HPI: 187.6787
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $875,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,343 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.