14328 SW 31 Pl · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · Land · 101 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot $192/sqft · at area comps Est $221k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this beautiful new construction home in Ocala, FL. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and large 1 car garage, all situated on a spacious quarter-acre lot. Designed with comfort and modern living in mind, this home features a bright open floor plan and stylish finishes. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, creating the perfect space for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bathroom and generous closet space, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Schedule a private showing to see this beauty today.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunnellon Elementary School (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 580 students, 61% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1161 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $225k implies a 466% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,425 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,914
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: 1.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-45,631
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-51,490
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1161
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,374/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,967

Max offer price $203,965

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-67	+0% $-145	+5% $-222	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-286	-5% $-215	+0% $-145	+5% $-74	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-87	base $-145	+0.5pp $-203	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14445 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	23d	1	0.70mi
14665 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,900	$1.55	15d	1	0.76mi
14070 SW 17th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,500	$1.08	23d	1	1.00mi
15388 SW 26th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,800	$1.48	15d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $224,900 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,900 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,900 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,900 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $224,900 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    Discover this beautiful new construction home in Ocala, FL. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and large 1 car garage, all situated on a spacious quarter-acre lot. Designed with comfort and modern living in mind, this home features a bright open floor plan and stylish finishes. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, creating the perfect space for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bathroom and generous closet space, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Schedule a private showing to see this beauty today.

18. 2026-03-12
    listed $229,900 Active 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    Discover this beautiful new construction home in Ocala, FL. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and large 1 car garage, all situated on a spacious quarter-acre lot. Designed with comfort and modern living in mind, this home features a bright open floor plan and stylish finishes. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, creating the perfect space for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bathroom and generous closet space, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Schedule a private showing to see this beauty today.

19. 2026-02-26
    historical
20. 2025-09-27
    listed $235,000 Active
21. 2004-10-15
    soldstatus $39,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,374
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$5,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $-379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Park, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+466.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-27 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $39,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $349 · +38.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.