5370 Graves Chapel Rd · Gloster, MS 39645

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1987 4.07 ac lot Est $118k · 10% over ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3BR house minutes from Homochitto National Forest. This home has a great den and kitchen that features 2 stone fireplaces and vaulted ceilings. The entire property is fenced and has a barn and large metal building.

Key facts

• Large open-bay sheds
• Homesteading venture
• 4.07 acres

Tags

• 4.07 ACRES
• LARGE OPEN-BAY SHEDS
• HOMESTEADING VENTURE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#343 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Amite County School District (rural): math 21% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #95 of 130 in MS (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Amite County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,650 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.08%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,404
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5370 Graves Chapel Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,889 (+10%)	1mo	$130,000	$69	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $13,103
• Equity at exit: $47,415

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $49,291
• Equity at exit: $65,427

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39645

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $161	+0% $124	+5% $87	+10% $50
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $79	+0% $124	+5% $168	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $189	-0.5pp $157	base $124	+0.5pp $90	+1.0pp $56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $130,000 Active
3. 2009-01-22
   soldstatus 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   Nice 3BR house minutes from Homochitto National Forest. This home has a great den and kitchen that features 2 stone fireplaces and vaulted ceilings. The entire property is fenced and has a barn and large metal building.

4. 2008-11-06
   listed $160,000 219-char remark

   Show marketing remark (219 chars)

   Nice 3BR house minutes from Homochitto National Forest. This home has a great den and kitchen that features 2 stone fireplaces and vaulted ceilings. The entire property is fenced and has a barn and large metal building.

5. 2002-05-09
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 182.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,081
• − Management: −$1,081
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$722
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$173
• After-tax cash flow: $1,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amite County School District
• NCES district ID: 2800420
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $30,275
• Composite: 15.22/100
• National rank: #9340
• State rank: #95 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gloster

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #25560

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,744

Population outlook (Amite County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,300 people
• By 2030: 10,527 · -6.8%
• By 2040: 8,881 · -21.4%
• By 2050: 7,326 · -35.2%
• By 2075: 4,691 · -58.5%
• By 2100: 3,035 · -73.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 40% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Amite

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.0% · R 65.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+26.1 2016: R+22.7 2012: R+15.3 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 112.0501
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-24 Listed $130,000 MLSU
• 2009-01-22 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2008-11-06 Listed $160,000 MLSU
• 2002-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $363 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.