1409 Bacon Ave · Portage, MI 49002

$280,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,425 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 1975 0.34 ac lot Est $388k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with an abundance of living space throughout. Enjoy a formal dining room that can easily double as a home office, plus additional basement space ideal for a potential 5th bedroom. Step outside to a huge, fenced backyard for entertaining or relaxing. Major updates include newer roof & gutters (2022), AC/furnace (2021) and water heater (2025) for added peace of mind. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Portage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#90 in MI, #2,044 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Portage Public Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #67 of 540 in MI (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 127 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 339 units permitted in Kalamazoo County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kalamazoo County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $229k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $242,248 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $388,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9930 Sea Breeze Ct	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,431 (+0%)	2mo	$638,900	$263	70
1620 E Osterhout Ave	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,450 (+1%)	0mo	$375,000	$153	70
2140 Austin Shores Ave	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,460 (+1%)	8mo	$407,000	$165	66
1341 Lancelot Ct	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,129 (-12%)	3mo	$387,500	$182	64
1560 Auburn Woods Trl	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,222 (-8%)	14mo	$370,000	$167	59
1614 Lancelot Ct	0.28mi	4/3.5	2,686 (+11%)	12mo	$430,000	$160	53
1380 Auburn Woods Trl	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,693 (+11%)	21mo	$395,000	$147	51
9403 Organdy St	0.74mi	4/1.5	2,226 (-8%)	1mo	$275,000	$124	49
10174 Point O Woods Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,258 (-7%)	10mo	$409,900	$182	46
9907 Navy Pier St	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,760 (+14%)	14mo	$412,000	$149	39
2505 Bay Side Ave	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,174 (-10%)	13mo	$310,000	$143	38
9864 Mariner St	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,760 (+14%)	13mo	$410,000	$149	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-42,182
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $9,485
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49002

• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,422 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,778/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $253,013

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1847 Bluff Ridge Ct Portage, MI	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,995	$1.86	21d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 555-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $280,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-04-10
   status Pending 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with an abundance of living space throughout. Enjoy a formal dining room that can easily double as a home office, plus additional basement space ideal for a potential 5th bedroom. Step outside to a huge, fenced backyard for entertaining or relaxing. Major updates include newer roof & gutters (2022), AC/furnace (2021) and water heater (2025) for added peace of mind. Schedule a showing today!

7. 2026-04-10
   status Pending 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with an abundance of living space throughout. Enjoy a formal dining room that can easily double as a home office, plus additional basement space ideal for a potential 5th bedroom. Step outside to a huge, fenced backyard for entertaining or relaxing. Major updates include newer roof & gutters (2022), AC/furnace (2021) and water heater (2025) for added peace of mind. Schedule a showing today!

8. 2026-04-10
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with an abundance of living space throughout. Enjoy a formal dining room that can easily double as a home office, plus additional basement space ideal for a potential 5th bedroom. Step outside to a huge, fenced backyard for entertaining or relaxing. Major updates include newer roof & gutters (2022), AC/furnace (2021) and water heater (2025) for added peace of mind. Schedule a showing today!

9. 2026-04-02
   listed $280,000 Active 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with an abundance of living space throughout. Enjoy a formal dining room that can easily double as a home office, plus additional basement space ideal for a potential 5th bedroom. Step outside to a huge, fenced backyard for entertaining or relaxing. Major updates include newer roof & gutters (2022), AC/furnace (2021) and water heater (2025) for added peace of mind. Schedule a showing today!

10. 2026-04-02
    listed $280,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with an abundance of living space throughout. Enjoy a formal dining room that can easily double as a home office, plus additional basement space ideal for a potential 5th bedroom. Step outside to a huge, fenced backyard for entertaining or relaxing. Major updates include newer roof & gutters (2022), AC/furnace (2021) and water heater (2025) for added peace of mind. Schedule a showing today!

11. 2026-04-02
    listed $280,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with an abundance of living space throughout. Enjoy a formal dining room that can easily double as a home office, plus additional basement space ideal for a potential 5th bedroom. Step outside to a huge, fenced backyard for entertaining or relaxing. Major updates include newer roof & gutters (2022), AC/furnace (2021) and water heater (2025) for added peace of mind. Schedule a showing today!

12. 2026-03-30
    historical $280,000 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with an abundance of living space throughout. Enjoy a formal dining room that can easily double as a home office, plus additional basement space ideal for a potential 5th bedroom. Step outside to a huge, fenced backyard for entertaining or relaxing. Major updates include newer roof & gutters (2022), AC/furnace (2021) and water heater (2025) for added peace of mind. Schedule a showing today!

13. 2026-03-30
    historical $280,000

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with an abundance of living space throughout. Enjoy a formal dining room that can easily double as a home office, plus additional basement space ideal for a potential 5th bedroom. Step outside to a huge, fenced backyard for entertaining or relaxing. Major updates include newer roof & gutters (2022), AC/furnace (2021) and water heater (2025) for added peace of mind. Schedule a showing today!

14. 2023-07-21
    soldstatus $229,000
15. 2023-07-13
    soldstatus $229,000 Sold
16. 2023-07-13
    soldstatus $229,000 Closed
17. 2023-07-13
    soldstatus $229,000 Sold
18. 2023-07-03
    status Pending
19. 2023-07-03
    status Pending
20. 2023-06-30
    listed $229,900 Active
21. 2023-06-30
    listed $229,900 Active
22. 2023-06-30
    listed $229,900 Active
23. 2018-02-02
    soldstatus $146,000
24. 2018-01-29
    soldstatus $146,000
25. 2018-01-29
    soldstatus $146,000 Sold
26. 2018-01-05
    status Pending
27. 2017-12-09
    price $149,900
28. 2017-11-27
    price $159,900
29. 2017-11-17
    price $164,900
30. 2017-11-12
    listed $169,900 Active
31. 2017-11-12
    listed $149,900
32. 2014-06-11
    soldstatus $92,000
33. 2014-06-06
    soldstatus $92,000
34. 2014-06-06
    soldstatus $92,000
35. 2013-09-13
    listed $99,900
36. 2013-09-13
    listed $99,900
37. 1998-10-22
    soldstatus $109,500
38. 1998-10-22
    soldstatus $109,500
39. 1998-06-26
    listed $109,500
40. 1998-06-26
    listed $109,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,778 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,778 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$5,778
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$6,589
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,581
• After-tax cash flow: $-252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portage Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2628950
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,322
• Composite: 48.37/100
• National rank: #2142
• State rank: #67 of 540 in MI

Livability — Portage

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #2044

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portage, MI
• County: Kalamazoo County · 224,317 people
• City population: 50,560
• Metro: Kalamazoo-Portage, MI
• Population (ZIP): 19,737
• Household income: $73,647
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 462.0

Population outlook (Kalamazoo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 280,982 people
• By 2030: 292,068 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 312,191 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 331,196 · +17.9%
• By 2075: 379,021 · +34.9%
• By 2100: 396,579 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 6% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kalamazoo

• 2024 margin: D (+17.7) · D 58.0% · R 40.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.8pp toward R · 2008: 19.5pp · 2024: 17.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.7 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+13.3 2008: D+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.17%
• Current HPI: 219.4489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.29%
• Metro: Kalamazoo-Portage, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+155.7% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $280,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-02 Listed $280,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $280,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-30 Coming Soon $280,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-30 Coming Soon $280,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-13 Sold (MLS) $229,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-07-13 Sold (MLS) $229,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-07-13 Sold (MLS) $229,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-07-03 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-07-03 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-06-30 Listed $229,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-06-30 Listed $229,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-30 Listed $229,900 REALCOMP
• 2018-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-29 Sold (MLS) $146,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-01-29 Sold (MLS) $146,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-01-05 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2017-12-09 Price Changed $149,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2017-11-27 Price Changed $159,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2017-11-17 Price Changed $164,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2017-11-12 Listed $169,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2017-11-12 Listed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-06 Sold (MLS) $92,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-06-06 Sold (MLS) $92,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2013-09-13 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2013-09-13 Listed $99,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 1998-10-22 Sold (MLS) $109,500 REALCOMP
• 1998-10-22 Sold (MLS) $109,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 1998-06-26 Listed $109,500 REALCOMP
• 1998-06-26 Listed $109,500 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+59.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,778 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.