817 S 3rd St · Herrin, IL 62948

$79,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Other · 66 Days on market

Built 1971 0.46 ac lot $57/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this spacious 2 bedroom 1 bath ranch home ready for new owners to add their finishing touches! Large living room with a wood fire place, kitchen/dinning room combo has a breakfast bar and pantry. The home features 2 bedrooms but ALSO has a bonus room and large laundry area. Outside you are on almost half an acre, has large carport and storage shed. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Pantry
• Large laundry area
• Bonus room

Tags

• WOOD FIRE PLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PANTRY
• BONUS ROOM
• LARGE LAUNDRY AREA
• LARGE CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Herrin CUSD 4 (suburban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #364 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,730 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.07%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,926
• List price: $79,500
• Delta: -57.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-913
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $14,825
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62948

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,340/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $817

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Ct D Herrin, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	43d	1	1.08mi
6 Court C Herrin, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	43d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,500 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,500 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,500 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,500 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,500 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,500 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,500 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,500 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,500 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,500 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,500 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,500 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,500 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $79,500 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Welcome home to this spacious 2 bedroom 1 bath ranch home ready for new owners to add their finishing touches! Large living room with a wood fire place, kitchen/dinning room combo has a breakfast bar and pantry. The home features 2 bedrooms but ALSO has a bonus room and large laundry area. Outside you are on almost half an acre, has large carport and storage shed. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,340 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,340 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$2,340
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,011
• − Management: −$1,011
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $1,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$266
• After-tax cash flow: $1,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herrin CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1718810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $38,824
• Composite: 20.56/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #364 of 620 in IL

Livability — Herrin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #13670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herrin, IL
• City population: 12,728
• Population (ZIP): 12,728

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.82%
• Current HPI: 131.1617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $79,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,340 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.