516 Caraway Trl · Princeton, TX 75407

$217,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,400 sqft lot $154/sqft · 23% below area Est $281k · 23% under $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

$15,000 OFF – MOTHERS DAY SPECIAL! LENNAR - Acorn South- Idlewood Floorplan Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Acorn South subdivision; Selling from model home
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan; Treat as clear loan type
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee covering full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management fees; HOA managed by Insight

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s); Fire alarm
• Utilities: MUD water; MUD sewer; Concrete curbs and sidewalks; Municipal Utility District; Rain/freeze sensors; Enhanced air filtration; Insulation; Energy-efficient windows and doors; Low flow commode
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction (incomplete, 2026); Property faces front (garage faces front)
• Construction: Fiber cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2026
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Natural stone/granite countertops; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric) with ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Central air (electric) with ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Thermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Mechanical fresh air; Water heater (energy efficient)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($382/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,324 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,365
• List price: $217,999
• Delta: -22.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Autumn Sage Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+2%)	3mo	$230,000	$160	80
5711 Bristle Leaf Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-11%)	6mo	$180,625	$144	52
112 Honeysuckle St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	21mo	$285,000	$226	50
502 Cochran Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+4%)	12mo	$249,900	$170	49
228 Jasmine Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	21mo	$269,000	$213	46
5020 Greywing Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+2%)	22mo	$286,500	$199	46
5125 Greywing Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+14%)	4mo	$320,000	$200	45
5922 Wedgemere Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,441 (+2%)	21mo	$295,000	$205	45
5403 Braemar Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+5%)	20mo	$272,900	$185	40
5331 Braemar Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+5%)	21mo	$269,900	$182	39
5304 Lavender Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	12mo	$248,000	$197	38
5200 Idlewood Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+13%)	18mo	$315,000	$197	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-39,161
• Equity at exit: $32,504

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-54,132
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$272 /mo · $3,270/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,983

Max offer price $217,999

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5217 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$2,186	$1.34	21d	1	0.24mi
5217 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	7d	1	0.24mi
122 Lemongrass Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,955	$1.17	5d	1	0.28mi
108 Wyndemere Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$2,100	$1.46	43d	1	0.30mi
128 Honeysuckle St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1675	$2,200	$1.31	18d	1	0.31mi
5504 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,999	$1.35	4d	1	0.33mi
136 Honeysuckle St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,700	$1.34	43d	1	0.33mi
119 Cypress Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,750	$1.39	43d	1	0.39mi
5644 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,800	$1.43	43d	1	0.43mi
5708 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,925	$1.34	43d	1	0.46mi
5720 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1500	$2,205	$1.47	5d	1	0.48mi
5733 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,720	$1.36	43d	1	0.48mi
5724 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,050	$1.62	24d	1	0.49mi
5817 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,624	$1.15	20d	1	0.51mi
5825 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,780	$1.24	43d	1	0.53mi
5836 Timber Point Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,875	$1.30	18d	1	0.58mi
5119 Winterberry Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,135	$1.16	43d	1	0.59mi
320 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,745	$1.18	12d	1	0.61mi
228 Rubylace Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,700	$1.18	43d	1	0.63mi
252 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	2d	1	0.63mi
252 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	16d	1	0.63mi
330 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	18d	1	0.64mi
5105 Greywing Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	17d	1	0.65mi
404 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,850	$1.11	43d	1	0.65mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,849	$1.25	24d	1	0.66mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,749	$1.18	5d	1	0.66mi
318 Mahogany Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	24d	1	0.67mi
5405 Lavender Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,900	$1.13	24d	1	0.67mi
5405 Lavender Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,900	$1.13	43d	1	0.67mi
411 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1675	$1,995	$1.19	43d	1	0.68mi
427 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,800	$1.21	3d	1	0.71mi
510 Olmstead Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,395	$1.90	5d	1	0.72mi
5836 Crystal Water Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,799	$1.21	5d	1	0.72mi
143 Plumcove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1376	$2,150	$1.56	43d	1	0.75mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,785	$1.21	16d	1	0.75mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,785	$1.21	7d	1	0.75mi
5808 Cherry Hollow Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,749	$1.39	17d	1	0.78mi
617 Dashwood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,619	$1.12	2d	1	0.81mi
241 Boxberry Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,725	$1.22	43d	1	0.87mi
501 Merriam Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,500	$1.36	18d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-16
   price $217,999 415-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   price $217,999 196-char remark
3. 2026-04-28
   listed $218,999 Active 196-char remark
4. 2026-04-23
   listed $218,999 Active 415-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$3,270
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$3,239
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$777
• After-tax cash flow: $1,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or tenants, with opportunities for cosmetic upgrades to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the home, making it more appealing to buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the home, making it more appealing to buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $217,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $218,999 NTREIS