927 E Promenade St · Mexico, MO 65265

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,435 sqft · Other public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1910 10,019 sqft lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on a large corner lot with a fenced backyard and just minutes from the Missouri Military Academy, this 1910 2 bed, 1 bath home offers space, location, and real potential. The foundation has been evaluated by a structural engineer, and while the roof needs replacement, bids are available, giving you full clarity upfront. With over 1400 sq ft, a basement and a price that reflects updates needed, this is ideal for buyers ready to build equity fast or investors looking for a smart opportunity.

Key facts

• Evaluated foundation
• Fenced backyard
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• EVALUATED FOUNDATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Utilities: Other
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property type
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Wood privacy fence enclosing back yard (full fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric Range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator, Electric Range, Dishwasher; Has basement; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($968/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.5% in Mexico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#256 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mexico 59 (town): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #229 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 27 units permitted in Audrain County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Audrain County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $100,501 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.88%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-14,345
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,100
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65265

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,005 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $414/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $903

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Carson St Mexico, MO	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	21d	1	0.88mi
1227 W Breckenridge Dr Apt 04 Mexico, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$870	$0.99	44d	1	1.31mi
1312 W Breckenridge Dr Apt 02 Mexico, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$870	$0.97	13d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $119,900 Active 503-char remark
2. 2026-03-13
   status Active
3. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-18
   listed $129,900 Active
5. 2014-03-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $414 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$749/yr (+$62/mo · 180.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$414
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$965
• − Management: −$965
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$261
• After-tax cash flow: $1,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexico 59
• NCES district ID: 2920810
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,152
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6601
• State rank: #229 of 324 in MO

Livability — Mexico

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #12405

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexico, MO
• Population (ZIP): 15,131

Population outlook (Audrain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,791 people
• By 2030: 28,684 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 30,598 · +10.1%
• By 2050: 32,319 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 36,395 · +31.0%
• By 2100: 37,277 · +34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Audrain

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.6) · D 25.6% · R 73.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.6pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -47.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.6 2020: R+47.2 2016: R+44.0 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.24%
• Current HPI: 213.6163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $119,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — CBORMLS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $129,900 CBORMLS
• 2014-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $414 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.