1020 40th Street St · Galveston, TX 77550

$149,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,933 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1963 $77/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ma and Pa bring your saw. This property is ready for a makeover. Nice corner lot with quiet neighbors. All it takes is money and imagination.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1963
• Listed 49 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first floor living areas)
• Construction: Built in 1963; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (first floor)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Utility room; Den; Bonus room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (first floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 0.1% in Galveston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#108 in TX, #3,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D, crime F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 622 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,141/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 2193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,015 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.95%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,031
• List price: $149,500
• Delta: -53.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1102 36th St	0.29mi	3/3.5	1,859 (-4%)	1mo	$580,000	$312	73
4302 Avenue N 1/2	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,968 (+2%)	9mo	$290,000	$147	69
3728 Avenue O	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,819 (-6%)	11mo	$399,000	$219	62
4320 Ball St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,703 (-12%)	10mo	$140,000	$82	56
4701 Avenue N 1/2	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,832 (-5%)	6mo	$299,000	$163	55
4626 Avenue O 1/2	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (-5%)	1mo	$135,000	$74	54
3202 Avenue N 1/2	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,815 (-6%)	9mo	$425,000	$234	53
3724 Avenue P 1/2	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,718 (-11%)	8mo	$475,000	$276	48
4702 Bernardo De Galvez Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,080 (+8%)	7mo	$205,000	$99	47
4427 Avenue O	0.54mi	3/1.5	2,180 (+13%)	8mo	$294,500	$135	45
1611 34th St	0.54mi	3/3.0	2,206 (+14%)	8mo	$428,000	$194	40
3715 Avenue Q	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,661 (-14%)	6mo	$199,900	$120	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-24,067
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-35,874
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77550

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 622
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,884/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,021

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $137	+0% $95	+5% $53	+10% $10
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $10	+0% $95	+5% $180	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $133	base $95	+0.5pp $56	+1.0pp $17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3808 Avenue L Unit L Galveston, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,250	$1.25	44d	1	0.12mi
4025 Avenue M Unit M Galveston, TX	3.0	3.0	1628	$2,490	$1.53	44d	1	0.15mi
3523 Avenue L Unit L Galveston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	44d	1	0.31mi
4309 Ursuline Ave Unit 1flr Galveston, TX	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	44d	1	0.36mi
3002 Avenue K Galveston, TX	4.0	2.5	1500	$3,175	$2.12	44d	1	0.70mi
3602 Avenue Q 1/2 Galveston, TX	2.0	1.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	44d	1	0.72mi
2915 Avenue H Galveston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1118	$2,100	$1.88	2d	15	0.76mi
2427 35th St Galveston, TX	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,500	$1.62	44d	1	0.93mi
3828 S Avenue 1/2 Galveston, TX	2.0	1.0	1770	$1,600	$0.90	21d	1	0.93mi
4824 Avenue R Galveston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,300	$1.04	44d	1	0.97mi
4818 Avenue R 1/2 Galveston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1264	$1,875	$1.48	2d	2	1.00mi
4420 Avenue T Galveston, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,100	$1.67	44d	1	1.04mi
1801 Rosenberg St Unit HOUSE Galveston, TX	3.0	3.5	1288	$2,700	$2.10	44d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,500 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,500 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,500 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,500 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,500 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,500 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,500 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $149,500 Active 141-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,884 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,884 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$3,884
• − Insurance: −$5,866
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable loss: −$890
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$214
• After-tax cash flow: $1,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Galveston

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #3559

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Galveston, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 55,599
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,489
• Household income: $45,047
• Rent vs Own: 60.0% rent · 40.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2193.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 19% Black 19% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.96%
• Current HPI: 324.2159
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $149,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,884 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.