4411 Willow Pond Rd Unit C · West Palm Beach, FL 33417

$315,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,485 sqft · Townhouse public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $287k · 10% over $460/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully Furnished and Move in Ready! Near schools plus lots of community amenities! Bathed in natural light, featuring storm shutters, large screened patio with Kitchen & Master Bedroom access, gleaming tile, plush carpet, ceiling fans inside & out, 2 Flat panel TVs, window blinds, auto garage opener, Kitchen appls + W/D. Community clubhouse w/Olympic sized pool, gym, party rm, tennis/basketball/racquetball courts plus private satellite pool. HOA includes exterior maintenance & building insurance.

Key facts

• $460 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with restrictions or possible restrictions (conditional)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $460; Association covers common areas, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, recreation facilities, and roof; Community amenities: basketball court, clubhouse, community kitchen, fitness center, playground, pool, tennis courts, trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage (1 covered space); Guest parking; Two or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric water heater
• Home design: 2 stories; Property faces north; Entry on level 1; Attached property
• Construction: Block construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Fruit trees; Exterior lighting; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Bedroom on main level; Includes a family room
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Unfurnished; First-floor entry; Kitchen and dining combined; Custom mirrors; Main living area on entry level; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-240/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in West Palm Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#75 in FL, #1,255 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Seminole Trails Elementary School (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 650 students, 73% FRL); Bear Lakes Middle School (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 842 students, 74% FRL); Palm Beach Lakes High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,688 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 52% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 481 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,926/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 2548% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $194k; list at $315k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $292,574 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,605
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4041 San Marino Blvd #102	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-12%)	12mo	$251,000	$193	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-60,697
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-86,864
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33417

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,926 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,058/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$460
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,951

Max offer price $311,467

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $69	+0% $-20	+5% $-109	+10% $-198
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-136	+0% $-20	+5% $96	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $60	base $-20	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4385 Willow Brook Cir West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$3,200	$2.18	24d	1	0.16mi
4567 Brook Dr West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,000	$1.96	26d	1	0.32mi
4400 Portofino Way West Palm Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1222	$3,108	$2.54	19d	60	0.37mi
1912 Stratford Way West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1350	$3,000	$2.22	26d	1	0.66mi
4543 Tara Cove Way West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$3,000	$1.66	1d	1	0.82mi
3810 Rowena Cir West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1505	$3,000	$1.99	9d	1	0.92mi
3810 Rowena Cir West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1505	$3,150	$2.09	16d	1	0.92mi
1211 Pine Sage Cir West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1367	$3,200	$2.34	7d	1	1.04mi
5662 Parke Ave West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$3,000	$2.55	6d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $460 · $5,520/yr
• Likely covers: exterior maint.insurancepoolgym

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $315,000 Active
3. 2019-02-19
   soldstatus $194,000 Closed 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   Fully Furnished and Move in Ready! Near schools plus lots of community amenities! Bathed in natural light, featuring storm shutters, large screened patio with Kitchen & Master Bedroom access, gleaming tile, plush carpet, ceiling fans inside & out, 2 Flat panel TVs, window blinds, auto garage opener, Kitchen appls + W/D. Community clubhouse w/Olympic sized pool, gym, party rm, tennis/basketball/racquetball courts plus private satellite pool. HOA includes exterior maintenance & building insurance.

4. 2018-12-13
   historical Contingent 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   Fully Furnished and Move in Ready! Near schools plus lots of community amenities! Bathed in natural light, featuring storm shutters, large screened patio with Kitchen & Master Bedroom access, gleaming tile, plush carpet, ceiling fans inside & out, 2 Flat panel TVs, window blinds, auto garage opener, Kitchen appls + W/D. Community clubhouse w/Olympic sized pool, gym, party rm, tennis/basketball/racquetball courts plus private satellite pool. HOA includes exterior maintenance & building insurance.

5. 2018-12-06
   listed $199,900 Active 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   Fully Furnished and Move in Ready! Near schools plus lots of community amenities! Bathed in natural light, featuring storm shutters, large screened patio with Kitchen & Master Bedroom access, gleaming tile, plush carpet, ceiling fans inside & out, 2 Flat panel TVs, window blinds, auto garage opener, Kitchen appls + W/D. Community clubhouse w/Olympic sized pool, gym, party rm, tennis/basketball/racquetball courts plus private satellite pool. HOA includes exterior maintenance & building insurance.

6. 1992-12-23
   soldstatus $50,000
7. 1986-10-01
   soldstatus $73,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,556/yr (+$130/mo · 147.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,058
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,809
• − Management: −$2,809
• − HOA: −$5,520
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$5,470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,313
• After-tax cash flow: $1,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Palm Beach

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #1255

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 38,079
• Household income: $51,605
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2548.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 10% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 11% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.62%
• Current HPI: 335.8396
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+328.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — MARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $315,000 MARMLS
• 2019-02-19 Sold (MLS) $194,000 Beaches MLS
• 2018-12-13 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2018-12-06 Listed $199,900 Beaches MLS
• 1992-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,058 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.