13022 Pine Trace St · Magnolia, TX 77316

$228,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Carmel Floor Plan - This new single-level home provides ample space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, dining area and family room, with convenient access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and relaxation. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the foyer, and the luxe owner’s suite is tucked away into a private corner at the back of the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and roomy walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Luxe owner’s suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXE OWNER’S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community Solutions association; Annual association fee; Community amenities include playground, park, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Approximate living area 1,717 (builder stated)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Pond on the lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 14); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each approx. 10 x 12); Total of 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Walk-in pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $228,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,343.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-598 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,819 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.34%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,343
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13107 Pine Trace St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+0%)	0mo	$308,190	$179	99
13095 Pine Trace St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,635 (-5%)	0mo	$308,990	$189	90
13099 Pine Trace St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-8%)	0mo	$303,990	$193	86
13091 Pine Trace St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-8%)	1mo	$303,990	$193	85
6039 Ash Willow Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+0%)	1mo	$276,990	$161	78
13083 Pine Trace St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (-4%)	1mo	$315,990	$191	76
13087 Pine Trace St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+2%)	1mo	$332,990	$190	72
6217 Alder Creek Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-15%)	0mo	$247,990	$170	72
6233 Alder Creek Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-15%)	0mo	$249,990	$171	65
6043 Ash Willow Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,968 (+15%)	0mo	$248,745	$126	55
6051 Ash Willow Ct	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,968 (+15%)	1mo	$297,990	$151	52
6122 Daintree Ct	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,968 (+15%)	1mo	$293,990	$149	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-93,046
• Equity at exit: $45,826

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-150,133
• Equity at exit: $26,573

Cash invested: $86,056 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,612
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,610/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,815

Max offer price $220,810

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-386	-5% $-492	+0% $-598	+5% $-704	+10% $-810
Rent	-10% $-761	-5% $-679	+0% $-598	+5% $-517	+10% $-435
Rate	-1.0pp $-443	-0.5pp $-520	base $-598	+0.5pp $-678	+1.0pp $-759

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,836
• Closing costs: $9,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $228,990 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 658-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $289,990 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 619-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $305,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,216
• − Property taxes: −$4,610
• − Insurance: −$1,537
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,941
• Taxable loss: −$12,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,062
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern design. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens the interior and improves energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens the interior and improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $305,990 HARMLS