108 Mohican Trl · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$59,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1980 0.45 ac lot $47/sqft · 68% below area $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent Opportunity!! On FOUR LOTS in Indian Harbor, in MABANK SCHOOLS, this much improving community has many new construction homes. Also has a neighborhood boat ramp. Take advantage of this wonderful opportunity before you miss out! With almost half of an acre, mostly fenced, this property features a mobile home plus a storage building. (Please don't disturb the tenant.) Typically, single lots in Indian Harbor are 50x100. The age of mobile home is unknown.

Key facts

• Storage building
• Mostly fenced
• Four lots

Tags

• FOUR LOTS
• NEIGHBORHOOD BOAT RAMP
• MOSTLY FENCED
• STORAGE BUILDING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $59,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$184,905) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.1% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,690 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.30%
• DSCR: 4.31
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,905
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -68.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20213 Leisureland Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-1%)	9mo	$179,000	$145	76
109 Indian Harbor Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,274 (+2%)	3mo	$25,995	$20	65
170 Natchez Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	5mo	$60,000	$43	60
163 Seminole Loop	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,068 (-14%)	5mo	$29,900	$28	52
154 Navajo Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-13%)	12mo	$35,000	$32	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $50,419
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $107,811
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,766 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $330/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $1,023

Break-even live

Break-even rent $471

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,056	-5% $1,040	+0% $1,023	+5% $1,006	+10% $990
Rent	-10% $883	-5% $953	+0% $1,023	+5% $1,093	+10% $1,162
Rate	-1.0pp $1,053	-0.5pp $1,038	base $1,023	+0.5pp $1,008	+1.0pp $992

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	44d	1	0.69mi
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	44d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,000 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-03-04
    listed $59,000 Active 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Excellent Opportunity!! On FOUR LOTS in Indian Harbor, in MABANK SCHOOLS, this much improving community has many new construction homes. Also has a neighborhood boat ramp. Take advantage of this wonderful opportunity before you miss out! With almost half of an acre, mostly fenced, this property features a mobile home plus a storage building. (Please don't disturb the tenant.) Typically, single lots in Indian Harbor are 50x100. The age of mobile home is unknown.

18. 2025-11-01
    historical
19. 2025-10-25
    price $63,900
20. 2025-10-15
    price $65,900
21. 2025-10-02
    price $66,000
22. 2025-09-24
    price $67,000
23. 2025-09-11
    price $69,000
24. 2025-08-18
    price $69,900
25. 2025-06-30
    price $74,900
26. 2025-04-30
    price $79,900
27. 2025-04-16
    price $84,900
28. 2025-02-20
    listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $330 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$750/yr (+$62/mo · 227.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$330
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $12,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,886
• After-tax cash flow: $9,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-34.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $59,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $63,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $65,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $66,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $67,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $69,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $74,900 NTREIS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $79,900 NTREIS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $84,900 NTREIS
• 2025-02-20 Listed $89,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $330 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.