Is 9395 Harritt Rd #3 in Lakeside, CA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 6.1% cap rate and $-50/mo modeled cash flow at a $289,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 9395 Harritt Rd #3?

The modeled cap rate is 6.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,465/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🌊 Lakefront

D+ Composite 46.81

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +12.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
DSCR +3.7/10.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
1% rule +3.5/10.0
Rent growth +3.4/5.0
Livability +2.8/5.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Manufactured-home adj. -4.1

$289,000

9395 Harritt Rd #3 · Lakeside, CA 92040

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2022 Good condition $235/sqft · 43% below area Est $510k · 43% under · waterfront ↓ 9% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

A manufactured home with something you don't find every day, your own private backyard, a spacious entertaining deck, and room to truly enjoy the outdoors. Built in 2022, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the comfort and feel of single-family living with an open floor plan, dedicated laundry room, and thoughtfully designed living spaces. Whether you're hosting weekend barbecues, enjoying your morning coffee on the deck, or letting kids and pets play in the fenced yard, this home was designed to be lived in. Inside, the kitchen opens to the living and dining areas, creating a warm, welcoming space for everyday life.

Key facts

Open floor plan
Lakefront community
Fenced yard

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-603/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (2.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (14.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $246k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 55/100 on livability (#877 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Blossom Valley Elementary (532 students, 42% FRL); Los Coches Creek Middle (538 students, 48% FRL); El Capitan High (math 20% / reading 54%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,825 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 17% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 58d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,453 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.85% ✗
Cap rate: 6.08%
Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
DSCR: 0.97
GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $509,625
List price: $289,000
Delta: -41.33%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9395 HARRITT Rd #62	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	2mo	$255,500	$190	79
9395 Harritt Rd #2	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-2%)	10mo	$165,000	$138	78
9500 Harritt Rd #201	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+2%)	11mo	$430,000	$345	71
9500 Harritt Rd. #283	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+2%)	12mo	$425,000	$341	71
9395 Harritt Rd #109	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+8%)	15mo	$345,000	$260	69
9395 Harritt Rd #67	0.00mi	3/3.5	1,344 (+9%)	23mo	$320,000	$238	60
9395 Harritt Rd Spc 6	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-15%)	14mo	$278,500	$265	59
9500 Harritt Rd. #69	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	17mo	$570,000	$424	54
9500 Harritt Rd Spc 16	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+11%)	22mo	$343,000	$251	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -16.9%
Equity multiple: 0.40×
Total profit: $-48,596
Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

IRR: -7.7%
Equity multiple: 0.50×
Total profit: $-40,490
Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 6 active · 7 under contract
Months of supply: 3.6 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $317,000 ($227/sqft)
Median days on market: 64 d
This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +82.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92040

Rents YoY: 3.6%
Active inventory: 243
Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,465 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,335/yr
Insurance: −$120
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,528

Max offer price $281,731

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $50	+0% $-50	+5% $-150	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-148	+0% $-50	+5% $47	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $23	base $-50	+0.5pp $-125	+1.0pp $-201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $72,250
Closing costs: $8,670
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13893 Pinkard Way #84 El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1464	$3,200	$2.19	109d	1	0.49mi
9208 Pinkard Ln El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,999	$3.00	58d	1	0.50mi
8729 Langholm Rd El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,500	$3.10	18d	1	0.91mi
14519 Rios Canyon Rd Unit D El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$2,495	$2.87	44d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Pet restrictions apply (breed restrictions)
HOA & community: Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, fitness center and playground

Exterior

Parking: 2 parking spaces
Utilities: Public waterSewer connected
Home design: Manufactured homeSingle-story
Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
Exterior features: Gate fencingShed(s)Community poolPlaygroundClubhouseFitness center

Interior

Kitchen: Includes refrigerator, dishwasher, disposal
Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
Interior features: DishwasherDisposalDryerRefrigeratorWasherOutdoor fireplace
Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

pricedays on market $289,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $299,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $299,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $299,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $299,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $299,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $299,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $299,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-09-13

statusdays on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-09-11

statusdays on market $299,000 Pending 33 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $299,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $299,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-08-27

pricedays on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $305,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $305,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $305,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $305,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $305,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $305,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $305,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $305,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $305,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $305,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $305,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $305,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $305,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $305,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $305,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $305,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $305,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $305,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-08

statusdays on marketlisting id $305,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-07-23

status $305,000 Pending Sale 129 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $305,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $305,000 Active 128 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $305,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $305,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $305,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $305,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $305,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $305,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $305,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $305,000 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,574
− Mortgage interest: −$16,188
− Property taxes: −$4,335
− Insurance: −$1,445
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
− Management: −$2,366
− Depreciation: −$8,407
Taxable loss: −$5,533

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,328
After-tax cash flow: $725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,150–$18,450 screening

This 2022 manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls/paint, and systems. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic repairs and maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value are painting the exterior and trimming the landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
Both trim landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blossom Valley Elementary Middle Los Coches Creek Middle High El Capitan High F CA #578/1,170 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Grossmont Union High
NCES district ID: 0616230
Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
Median HH income: $61,801
Composite: 40.07/100
National rank: #3810
State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 55/100

Livability — Lakeside

Score: 55/100
State rank: #877
US rank: #23702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Lakeside, CA
County: San Diego County · 3,678,185 people
City population: 46,216
Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
Population (ZIP): 46,216
Household income: $107,937
Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -622.09%
Current HPI: 344.8263
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	27	$1,492B
#4 Apple Cupertino $391.0B #7 Alphabet Mountain View $350.0B #22 Meta Platforms Menlo Park $164.5B #31 NVIDIA Santa Clara $130.5B #83 Cisco Systems San Jose $53.8B #84 HP Inc Palo Alto $53.6B #86 Intel Santa Clara $53.1B #88 Broadcom Palo Alto $52.4B #109 Qualcomm San Diego $39.0B #112 Salesforce San Francisco $38.4B #140 Applied Materials Santa Clara $27.2B #155 AMD Santa Clara $22.7B #330 Intuit Mountain View $16.3B #242 Lam Research Fremont $15.8B #252 Western Digital San Jose $13.0B #366 ServiceNow Santa Clara $11.0B #282 KLA Corporation Milpitas $10.8B #405 Workday Pleasanton $7.9B #302 Arista Networks Santa Clara $6.7B #365 NetApp San Jose $6.5B #352 Synopsys Sunnyvale $6.1B #331 Autodesk San Francisco $6.0B #395 Juniper Networks Sunnyvale $5.6B #403 Cadence Design Systems San Jose $4.6B #430 Veeva Systems Pleasanton $2.4B #397 Teradata San Diego $1.8B #461 Dolby Laboratories San Francisco $1.3B
Financial Services	3	$174B
#33 Wells Fargo San Francisco $125.4B #272 Visa San Francisco $35.9B #308 LPL Financial Holdings San Diego $12.3B
Retail	3	$44B
#162 Ross Stores Dublin $20.9B #231 Gap San Francisco $15.6B #323 Williams-Sonoma San Francisco $7.7B
Insurance	3	$26B
#241 Pacific Life Newport Beach $13.4B #293 First American Financial Santa Ana $7.7B #482 Mercury General Los Angeles $5.2B
Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
#46 Walt Disney Burbank $91.4B #263 Live Nation Entertainment Beverly Hills $23.2B
Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B
#126 Amgen Thousand Oaks $33.3B #137 Gilead Sciences Foster City $28.4B

Price history

-9.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

2026-08-07 Listed $305,000 SDMLS
2026-07-23 Pending — CRMLS
2026-07-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
2026-06-15 Relisted — CRMLS
2026-06-15 Price Changed $305,000 CRMLS
2026-06-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
2026-05-18 Relisted — CRMLS
2026-05-12 Pending — CRMLS
2026-05-01 Price Changed $309,995 CRMLS
2026-04-08 Relisted — CRMLS
2026-04-02 Contingent — CRMLS
2026-03-22 Price Changed $315,000 CRMLS
2026-02-26 Listed $335,000 CRMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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