819 Lyon St · San Francisco, CA 94115

$1,800,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,300 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1900 2,809 sqft lot $783/sqft · 28% above area Est $2029k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

819 Lyon Street is a classic San Francisco three-unit property offering tons of opportunity. The building consists of two one-bedroom unitsone vacant and one occupiedand a spacious two-story, two-bedroom, two-bath flat that will be delivered vacant, making it especially attractive for an owner-user. Interior features include grand 12-foot ceilings, wood floors, smart layouts, and partial views, while the main flat showcases a traditional living and dining room separated by elegant double parlor doors. The vacant one-bedroom has been refreshed with new engineered wood flooring, and the property benefits from a large, sun-filled backyard and a one-car garage delivered vacant. The roof was rep

Key facts

• Three unit property
• Wood floors
• Two story flat

Tags

• THREE UNIT PROPERTY
• TWO STORY FLAT
• GRAND 12 FOOT CEILINGS
• WOOD FLOORS
• PARTIAL VIEWS
• LARGE SUN FILLED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living/building area reported as 3,322 (source: appraiser)
• Financial info: One unit currently leased; two units vacant
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: One independent parking space
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: No utility details provided
• Home design: Residential income property (triplex); Three-unit building; Built in 1900
• Construction: Year built 1900
• Exterior features: Lot has no special features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 bedrooms across the property; Unit breakdown: one 2-bedroom unit (owner's flat), two 1-bedroom units
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: Total of 1 bathroom reported (1 full bathroom); Unit breakdown: owner's flat is 2 baths (2br/2ba), other two units are 1 bath each
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details provided
• Interior features: Owner's flat is a two-story unit; Property configured as three separate units (triplex); One unit is furnished: none (no furnished units)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility appliance details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.76M (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.30M (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.30M (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.6%/yr); 61 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $13,048/mo this rent would consume 103% of the median local household income ($152k/yr) (locally 2151% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $166k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $153k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$266k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.77M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,304,800 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,029,088
• List price: $1,800,000
• Delta: -11.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
233 Central Ave	0.49mi	4/4.0	2,250 (-2%)	6mo	$950,000	$422	69
2825 Pine St	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,335 (+2%)	4mo	$2,400,000	$1,028	65
2013-2015 Golden Gate Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,385 (+4%)	10mo	$1,500,000	$629	65
1904-1904 1/2 Golden Gate Ave	0.09mi	4/—	2,600 (+13%)	14mo	$1,600,000	$615	63
2843-2845 Geary Blvd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,400 (+4%)	1mo	$1,525,000	$635	61
2336-2338 Golden Gate Ave	0.30mi	4/—	2,100 (-9%)	18mo	$1,300,000	$619	56
1451-1453 Hayes St	0.37mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,100 (-9%)	6mo	$1,260,000	$600	54
1343 Pierce St	0.50mi	4/—	2,500 (+9%)	13mo	$1,230,000	$492	51
2342-2344 Golden Gate Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,100 (-9%)	18mo	$1,600,000	$762	48
719 -721 Anza St	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,500 (+9%)	15mo	$1,858,000	$743	38
1059 Haight St	0.60mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,630 (+14%)	8mo	$1,500,000	$570	36
919-921 Grove St	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,106 (-8%)	19mo	$1,640,000	$779	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.52% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $854,098
• Equity at exit: $1,431,280

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $2,665,655
• Equity at exit: $2,904,156

Cash invested: $504,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94115

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 35.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,048 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,439
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,312/yr
• Insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,740
• Net cashflow: $-241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,353

Max offer price $1,757,464

Occupancy floor 97%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$8,464
1× unit	2	2	$4,585
Total (3 units)			$13,048

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $450,000
• Closing costs: $54,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2577 Post St San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	2754	$15,000	$5.45	2d	1	0.32mi
2156 Sutter St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1900	$9,995	$5.26	24d	1	0.65mi
1436 Waller St Unit 1436 San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1800	$6,890	$3.83	43d	1	0.70mi
447 Spruce St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1640	$8,595	$5.24	43d	1	0.75mi
643 Cole St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.5	1600	$5,245	$3.28	43d	1	0.79mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$11,995	$5.45	13d	1	0.80mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$12,500	$5.68	24d	1	0.80mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$11,995	$5.45	10d	1	0.80mi
82 Parnassus Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1701	$2,800	$1.65	1d	1	1.00mi
143 4th Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.5	1668	$10,500	$6.29	43d	1	1.13mi
1961 California St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1838	$6,079	$3.31	43d	1	1.20mi
143 Corbett Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	4.0	2500	$10,500	$4.20	43d	1	1.22mi
623 8th Ave Unit 623 San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.5	1660	$6,295	$3.79	5d	1	1.24mi
2090 Green St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.5	2000	$12,995	$6.50	10d	1	1.34mi
1265 Stanyan St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2005	$13,900	$6.93	7d	1	1.36mi
270 Eureka St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	2024	$6,995	$3.46	2d	1	1.49mi
2335 Francisco St San Francisco, CA	3.0	3.0	2100	$11,995	$5.71	17d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $1,800,000 Active 930-char remark
2. 2022-07-23
   price $2,595

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,312 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,680 · $1,140/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,368/yr (+$781/mo · 217.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $156,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,828
• − Property taxes: −$4,312
• − Insurance: −$9,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,526
• − Management: −$12,526
• − Depreciation: −$52,364
• Taxable loss: −$34,979
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,395
• After-tax cash flow: $5,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,629
• Household income: $151,524
• Rent vs Own: 74.4% rent · 25.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2151.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Asian 20% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.52%
• Current HPI: 224.7175
• Rent YoY: ▲ 20.62%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+71190.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $1,850,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $1,800,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2022-07-23 Price Changed $2,595 RENT.

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,312 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.