5186 E Phelps Lake Dr · Nampa, ID 83687

$519,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 9,583 sqft lot Est $502k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unlock your $25K now through May 31st! Ask a Sales Specialist for details. This brand new home located in vibrant Nampa, Idaho welcomes you with open arms. Enter into single level perfection with the Monterey 2100. The entryway leads you into the heart of the home where a bright living room, spacious kitchen, and airy dining room come together under soaring 9ft ceilings. The modern great room design is ideal for entertaining, allowing you to move easily between the kitchen with upgraded finishes, including stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and stylish solid surface countertops. Large windows fill the space with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The primary suite provides an escape worthy experience with a luxurious en suite bathroom that includes a roomy shower, a separate soaker tub, and abundant storage. Throughout the home, thoughtful details enhance both style and function, making the Monterey 2100 a refined and comfortable place to call home. Photos are of the actual home!

Key facts

• Large windows
• Upgraded finishes
• Gas range

Tags

• MODERN GREAT ROOM DESIGN
• UPGRADED FINISHES
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Nampa NE area (Spring Hollow Ranch); Directions: From Star and Cherry: N on Star, W Open Canyon, N Phelps Lake
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $650; Subdivision: Spring Hollow Ranch

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 covered parking spaces (3 total)
• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected; Gas service (for heating and appliances)
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction (built 2025); Built by CBH Homes; Composition roof; Frame construction with HardiPlank-type siding
• Construction: Frame and HardiPlank-type exterior; Composition roof; Year built 2025; Builder: CBH Homes
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Covered patio/deck; Sidewalks; Irrigation available with auto/pressurized/partial sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (approx. 10 x 13); Kitchen island; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Freestanding oven/range; Gas range; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms, all on the main level (Primary: ~14 x 15; Bedroom 2: ~10 x 10; Bedroom 3: ~10 x 11; Bedroom 4: ~10 x 13)
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (including primary suite bath with double vanity)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on main level with private bath; Double vanity in primary bath; Walk-in closet(s); Great room; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Kitchen island; Solid surface counters; Utility room on main level; One gas fireplace with insert
• Laundry & utility: Utility/laundry room located on the main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $520k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $499k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $443k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $443k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Nampa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Canyon Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #247 of 357 statewide, top 70%, 692 students, 33% FRL); Sage Valley Middle School (math 27% / reading 55%, grade F, #68 of 109 statewide, top 62%, 810 students, 28% FRL); Ridgevue High School (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #55 of 169 statewide, top 34%, 1,578 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,430/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 683% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($504k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $443,041 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $501,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5214 E Phelps Lake Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,025 (-4%)	1mo	$459,990	$227	92
5200 E Phelps Lake Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	2,023 (-4%)	2mo	$479,990	$237	92
5256 E Phelps Lake Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,054 (-2%)	0mo	$469,990	$229	91
5030 E Open Canyon Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,023 (-4%)	1mo	$469,990	$232	87
17635 N Boone Peak Ave	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,054 (-2%)	2mo	$469,990	$229	87
5127 E Open Canyon Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,860 (-11%)	0mo	$451,990	$243	79
5072 E Open Canyon Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,893 (-10%)	0mo	$451,990	$239	77
5268 E Open Canyon Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,893 (-10%)	1mo	$456,990	$241	76
17691 N Boone Peak Ave	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,860 (-11%)	1mo	$439,990	$237	75
5576 E Garby St Lot 12 Block 7	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,046 (-3%)	1mo	$533,601	$261	71
5564 E Garby St Lot 13 Block 7	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,979 (-6%)	1mo	$519,990	$263	66
5552 E Garby St Lot 14 Block 7	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,258 (+8%)	1mo	$549,990	$244	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-91,586
• Equity at exit: $77,532

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-83,286
• Equity at exit: $44,959

Cash invested: $145,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83687

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,430 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,727
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$650 /mo · $7,800/yr
• Insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$930
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,617

Max offer price $498,645

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $32	+0% $-148	+5% $-327	+10% $-507
Rent	-10% $-498	-5% $-323	+0% $-148	+5% $27	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $-15	base $-148	+0.5pp $-282	+1.0pp $-419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,998
• Closing costs: $15,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5126 E Sylvan Hart Dr Unit 1322143P Nampa, ID	5.0	2.5	2992	$6,692	$2.24	16d	1	0.07mi
5563 E Garby St Nampa, ID	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,195	$1.56	23d	1	0.52mi
5553 E Bollo St Unit 1322139P Nampa, ID	3.0	2.5	1991	$3,376	$1.70	13d	1	0.78mi
5643 E Bollo St Unit 1250641P Nampa, ID	3.0	2.5	1797	$3,396	$1.89	13d	1	0.82mi
16852 Idaho Center Blvd Nampa, ID	3.0	2.5	1558	$1,762	$1.13	4d	3	1.10mi
7003 W Redwood Creek Dr Meridian, ID	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,650	$1.31	16d	1	1.21mi
6960 W Redwood Creek Dr Unit 1250677P Meridian, ID	5.0	2.5	2798	$6,915	$2.47	16d	1	1.25mi
6670 W Yoke St Meridian, ID	3.0	2.0	1903	$2,500	$1.31	25d	1	1.28mi
4289 N Glassford Ave Unit 1250678P Meridian, ID	4.0	2.0	2195	$5,366	$2.44	13d	1	1.32mi
6643 W Redwood Creek Dr Meridian, ID	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,350	$1.39	4d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Active 1022-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

   Unlock your $25K now through May 31st! Ask a Sales Specialist for details. This brand new home located in vibrant Nampa, Idaho welcomes you with open arms. Enter into single level perfection with the Monterey 2100. The entryway leads you into the heart of the home where a bright living room, spacious kitchen, and airy dining room come together under soaring 9ft ceilings. The modern great room design is ideal for entertaining, allowing you to move easily between the kitchen with upgraded finishes, including stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and stylish solid surface countertops. Large windows fill the space with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The primary suite provides an escape worthy experience with a luxurious en suite bathroom that includes a roomy shower, a separate soaker tub, and abundant storage. Throughout the home, thoughtful details enhance both style and function, making the Monterey 2100 a refined and comfortable place to call home. Photos are of the actual home!

2. 2026-05-14
   status Active
3. 2026-04-04
   historical 1022-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

   Unlock your $25K now through May 31st! Ask a Sales Specialist for details. This brand new home located in vibrant Nampa, Idaho welcomes you with open arms. Enter into single level perfection with the Monterey 2100. The entryway leads you into the heart of the home where a bright living room, spacious kitchen, and airy dining room come together under soaring 9ft ceilings. The modern great room design is ideal for entertaining, allowing you to move easily between the kitchen with upgraded finishes, including stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and stylish solid surface countertops. Large windows fill the space with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The primary suite provides an escape worthy experience with a luxurious en suite bathroom that includes a roomy shower, a separate soaker tub, and abundant storage. Throughout the home, thoughtful details enhance both style and function, making the Monterey 2100 a refined and comfortable place to call home. Photos are of the actual home!

4. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-14
   listed $519,990 Active 1022-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

   Unlock your $25K now through May 31st! Ask a Sales Specialist for details. This brand new home located in vibrant Nampa, Idaho welcomes you with open arms. Enter into single level perfection with the Monterey 2100. The entryway leads you into the heart of the home where a bright living room, spacious kitchen, and airy dining room come together under soaring 9ft ceilings. The modern great room design is ideal for entertaining, allowing you to move easily between the kitchen with upgraded finishes, including stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and stylish solid surface countertops. Large windows fill the space with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The primary suite provides an escape worthy experience with a luxurious en suite bathroom that includes a roomy shower, a separate soaker tub, and abundant storage. Throughout the home, thoughtful details enhance both style and function, making the Monterey 2100 a refined and comfortable place to call home. Photos are of the actual home!

6. 2026-03-13
   listed $519,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,128
• − Property taxes: −$7,800
• − Insurance: −$2,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,253
• − Management: −$4,253
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$15,127
• Taxable loss: −$10,644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,555
• After-tax cash flow: $784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new home in Nampa, Idaho is move-in ready with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for both resale and rental value with minimal additional work required.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting.
• Rental Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can attract more renters and increase rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and appealing to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vallivue School District
• NCES district ID: 1600600
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,377
• Composite: 38.3/100
• National rank: #4229
• State rank: #48 of 92 in ID

Livability — Nampa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #6250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nampa, ID
• County: Canyon County · 235,358 people
• City population: 142,249
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 43,135
• Household income: $76,682
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 683.0

Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.50%
• Current HPI: 388.8148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — IMLS
• 2026-04-04 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Pending — IMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $519,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-13 Listed $519,990 IMLS