912 11th St · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 232 Days on market

Built 2005 6,775 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 3 bedroom/2 bathroom home in Wolfforth located on a quiet cul-de-sac. Perfect for first time home buyer or rental property. Features include beautiful flooring, granite countertops, and a great covered deck in the backyard. Fenced off area could be used as a dog run or RV storage. Call for a private showing today.

Key facts

• 6,775 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-255/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $99,517
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $294,349
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,459/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,796

Max offer price $181,251

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $31	+0% $-21	+5% $-74	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-91	+0% $-21	+5% $49	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $26	base $-21	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	44d	1	0.03mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	44d	1	0.13mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	14d	1	0.61mi
304 E 19th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	14d	1	0.88mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	14d	1	0.89mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	14d	1	0.96mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	14d	2	1.03mi
2001 Bryan Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,400	$1.03	44d	1	1.05mi
1712 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	2.0	2.0	1335	$1,375	$1.03	44d	1	1.05mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	44d	1	1.06mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	21d	1	1.06mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	14d	1	1.08mi
2011 Bryan Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	44d	1	1.08mi
407 E 21st St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,399	$1.03	21d	1	1.09mi
2008 Bryan Ave Unit Harvest-2008 A Bryan Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,400	$1.14	44d	1	1.09mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit 2001 B Corpus Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	1.09mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	14d	1	1.09mi
2304 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	44d	1	1.11mi
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	44d	1	1.11mi
2006 Corpus Ave Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,425	$1.17	14d	1	1.13mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	44d	1	1.14mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	44d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-20
   price $185,000 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Cute 3 bedroom/2 bathroom home in Wolfforth located on a quiet cul-de-sac. Perfect for first time home buyer or rental property. Features include beautiful flooring, granite countertops, and a great covered deck in the backyard. Fenced off area could be used as a dog run or RV storage. Call for a private showing today.

2. 2026-02-26
   price $186,000 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Cute 3 bedroom/2 bathroom home in Wolfforth located on a quiet cul-de-sac. Perfect for first time home buyer or rental property. Features include beautiful flooring, granite countertops, and a great covered deck in the backyard. Fenced off area could be used as a dog run or RV storage. Call for a private showing today.

3. 2026-01-27
   price $188,000 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Cute 3 bedroom/2 bathroom home in Wolfforth located on a quiet cul-de-sac. Perfect for first time home buyer or rental property. Features include beautiful flooring, granite countertops, and a great covered deck in the backyard. Fenced off area could be used as a dog run or RV storage. Call for a private showing today.

4. 2025-10-10
   listed $190,000 Active 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Cute 3 bedroom/2 bathroom home in Wolfforth located on a quiet cul-de-sac. Perfect for first time home buyer or rental property. Features include beautiful flooring, granite countertops, and a great covered deck in the backyard. Fenced off area could be used as a dog run or RV storage. Call for a private showing today.

5. 2023-05-02
   soldstatus Closed 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   The most charming home in Wolfforth is waiting for you! Perfect for a first time home-buyer, or even a great rental home. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 car garage with fresh paint, beautiful floors, and a great backyard with a patio and dog run. Come by and see this one today!

6. 2023-05-02
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   The most charming home in Wolfforth is waiting for you! Perfect for a first time home-buyer, or even a great rental home. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 car garage with fresh paint, beautiful floors, and a great backyard with a patio and dog run. Come by and see this one today!

7. 2023-03-31
   status Pending 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   The most charming home in Wolfforth is waiting for you! Perfect for a first time home-buyer, or even a great rental home. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 car garage with fresh paint, beautiful floors, and a great backyard with a patio and dog run. Come by and see this one today!

8. 2023-03-27
   listed $180,000 Active 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   The most charming home in Wolfforth is waiting for you! Perfect for a first time home-buyer, or even a great rental home. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 car garage with fresh paint, beautiful floors, and a great backyard with a patio and dog run. Come by and see this one today!

9. 2017-02-24
   soldstatus
10. 2006-01-20
    soldstatus
11. 2005-06-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,459 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,459 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$4,459
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$791
• After-tax cash flow: $536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $185,000 LARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $186,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $188,000 LARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $190,000 LARMLS
• 2023-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-02 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Pending — LARMLS
• 2023-03-27 Listed $180,000 LARMLS
• 2017-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-01-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,459 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.