202 S Western Ave · Cheboygan, MI 49721

$120,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,719 sqft · SingleFamily · 126 Days on market

Built 1895 0.50 ac lot Est $175k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

perfect location for raising a family or creating your first airbnb this charming 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home needs some cosmetic updating to your taste. The huge lot would be perfect for your new inground pool and pole building(yes there is room for both) 5 mins to Lake Huron AND it is just 17 miles for Mackinaw City this will only be listed as a fisbo for 60 days

Key facts

• 5 mins to lake huron
• Inground pool
• Huge lot

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• INGROUND POOL
• 5 MINS TO LAKE HURON
• 17 MILES TO MACKINAW CITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.51 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Blinds; Accessible entrance; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($396/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Cheboygan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#251 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cheboygan Area Schools (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #307 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Cheboygan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cheboygan County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $120k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $100,987 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,338
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 S Western Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,719 (0%)	1mo	$145,000	$84	99
806 Division St	0.26mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,712 (-0%)	5mo	$184,000	$107	76
990 W State St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-6%)	5mo	$165,000	$102	66
1135 W 1st St	0.75mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,733 (+1%)	1mo	$210,000	$121	52
1208 Howard St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,545 (-10%)	21mo	$157,500	$102	51
1050 Mackinaw Ave	0.61mi	3/3.5	1,562 (-9%)	12mo	$245,000	$157	38
208 E Seymour St	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,836 (+7%)	20mo	$70,000	$38	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-17,366
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-12,512
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49721

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,010 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,026/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $968

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $67	+0% $33	+5% $-1	+10% $-35
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $-7	+0% $33	+5% $73	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $64	base $33	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-04-06
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-03-30
   listed $135,000 Active
8. 2026-01-28
   listed $120,000 Active 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   perfect location for raising a family or creating your first airbnb this charming 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home needs some cosmetic updating to your taste. The huge lot would be perfect for your new inground pool and pole building(yes there is room for both) 5 mins to Lake Huron AND it is just 17 miles for Mackinaw City this will only be listed as a fisbo for 60 days

9. 2017-12-04
   soldstatus $54,000 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   GREAT PRICE ON 3 BEDROOM 1.5 BATH HOME FOR SALE IN CHEBOYGAN WITH HUGE BACKYARD ON CORNER LOT. It features a nice living room, large laundry area with good size deck out back to relax on. The family has been working hard finishing the upstairs bedroom, removing the old garage, painted the ramp and porch, put some carpet down in the upstairs bedroom and some other repairs to make this home look great. This is a great buy on a large home sitting on an outstanding corner lot with a huge backyard. We also have a great location in town. This home is also warranty protected. Call today for more information.

10. 2016-11-12
    listed $57,000 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    GREAT PRICE ON 3 BEDROOM 1.5 BATH HOME FOR SALE IN CHEBOYGAN WITH HUGE BACKYARD ON CORNER LOT. It features a nice living room, large laundry area with good size deck out back to relax on. The family has been working hard finishing the upstairs bedroom, removing the old garage, painted the ramp and porch, put some carpet down in the upstairs bedroom and some other repairs to make this home look great. This is a great buy on a large home sitting on an outstanding corner lot with a huge backyard. We also have a great location in town. This home is also warranty protected. Call today for more information.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,026 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,437 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$411/yr (+$34/mo · 40.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,026
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$969
• − Management: −$969
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,659
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$398
• After-tax cash flow: $794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheboygan Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2608910
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,751
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6590
• State rank: #307 of 540 in MI

Livability — Cheboygan

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #6261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheboygan, MI
• Population (ZIP): 13,937

Population outlook (Cheboygan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,773 people
• By 2030: 22,545 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 19,526 · -17.9%
• By 2050: 16,547 · -30.4%
• By 2075: 11,263 · -52.6%
• By 2100: 7,290 · -69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 8% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cheboygan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 33.8% · R 64.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.7pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+29.9 2016: R+32.1 2012: R+10.9 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.70%
• Current HPI: 219.6018
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+136.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $135,000 WWMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $120,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2017-12-04 Sold (MLS) $54,000 WWMLS
• 2016-11-12 Listed $57,000 WWMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,026 · -26.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.