2786 Adeline Ave · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$289,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · Land · 95 Days on market

Built 2026 5,662 sqft lot $8/mo HOA ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Located in the heart of Winter Haven, Willowbrook South puts you close to the area's Chain of Lakes, beautiful parks, and an array of dining and shopping. With top attractions and everyday conveniences just minutes away, your new home here keeps you connected to everything you love. Your new home at Willowbrook South places you right where you want to be. Now let me Introduce you to the Freeport II this 1498 sqft, 4 Bedroom 2 Bath home is just to die for. This home provides Luxury Vinyl tile in all the wet areas and Great room and Quartz Counter tops in the Kitchen and both Bathrooms. The Kitchen includes a Stove, Microwave, Dishwasher and Refrigerator, all Stainless Ste

Key facts

• Luxury vinyl tile
• Quartz counter tops
• Home smart system

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL TILE
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• HOME SMART SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,580; Monthly HOA approximately $8.33; Annual HOA fee $100
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Highland Community Management; HOA required with $100 annual fee (about $8.33/month); Community amenities: pool, park, playground, dog park, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (projected completion May 28, 2026); One story; Southwest facing; Entry on ground level
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (model: Freeport II)
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Sidewalks; Sliding doors; City limits location; In county

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric/heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Stone counters; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry room

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elbert Elementary School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 601 students, 62% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,141/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1270% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $214,062 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.74%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-69,263
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-94,176
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,348/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,546

Max offer price $243,546

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-220	+0% $-320	+5% $-421	+10% $-521
Rent	-10% $-489	-5% $-405	+0% $-320	+5% $-236	+10% $-151
Rate	-1.0pp $-174	-0.5pp $-247	base $-320	+0.5pp $-395	+1.0pp $-472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4117 Sophia Blvd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1748	$1,999	$1.14	5d	1	0.57mi
4137 Roberta Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,875	$1.14	21d	1	0.59mi
2418 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	5d	1	0.60mi
2144 Rose Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1857	$1,850	$1.00	5d	1	0.62mi
2007 9th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	25d	1	0.74mi
1314 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,940	$1.19	16d	1	0.74mi
1314 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,890	$1.16	5d	1	0.74mi
2451 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1870	$2,400	$1.28	25d	1	0.75mi
1225 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,890	$1.16	5d	1	0.77mi
1225 Evergreen Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,940	$1.19	16d	1	0.77mi
295 Lake Smart Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,100	$1.22	25d	1	0.83mi
251 Krenson Bay Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,250	$1.22	25d	1	1.01mi
3711 Julius Estates Blvd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,100	$1.14	21d	1	1.06mi
1331 11th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,190	$1.82	25d	1	1.08mi
2429 Twin Lake View Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,350	$1.26	16d	1	1.10mi
1581 Lemon Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,176	$1.19	23d	1	1.13mi
904 15th St NE Unit 1520445P Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1732	$4,909	$2.83	4d	1	1.36mi
3895 Conine Dr E Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	25d	1	1.37mi
1200 6th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,585	$1.29	16d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $289,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $289,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $293,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $293,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $293,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $293,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $293,900 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $293,900 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $293,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $293,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $293,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $295,990
17. 2026-04-01
    price $294,990
18. 2026-03-18
    listed $304,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$4,348
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,055
• − Management: −$2,055
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$8,989
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,157
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $295,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $294,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $304,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid