11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #4 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$64,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 1987 Fair condition Est $87k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks

Dont miss out on this great deal! This 3Bed 2 bath Home has a bright open floor plan and Is very spacious! screened In patio, lots of cabinet space, Nestled In the sought out 55+ Community of Rose Garden! with lots of amenities! 2dog parks, pool, spa, sauna, work out facility, close to shopping and much more! A great place to make your own!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Dog parks
• Cabinet space

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SCREENED IN PATIO
• CABINET SPACE
• DOG PARKS
• POOL
• SPA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: Assessor; Building area source: Assessor; Lot size has assessor-provided info
• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount: $985
• HOA & community: Monthly land lease; Land lease payment required monthly; Association covers sewer, water, trash, and grounds maintenance; Gated community; Community pool; Community spa (heated); Pickleball courts; Community media room; Fitness center; Coin-operated laundry; Biking/walking path; Pickleball court(s) available; No visible trucks/trailers/RVs/boats allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio; Exterior storage; Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Double vanity in bathroom; Vaulted ceilings; 3/4 bath in master bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $64k).
• Cap rate 26.3% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $555 of equity ($442 loan paydown + $113 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.63%
• DSCR: 4.19
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #271	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	8mo	$74,000	$51	87
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #188	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (0%)	2mo	$80,000	$55	85
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #29	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (+5%)	5mo	$73,500	$48	73
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #182	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (0%)	9mo	$70,000	$48	70
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #80	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+6%)	1mo	$120,000	$78	68
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #33	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	4mo	$112,000	$83	66
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #25	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-9%)	2mo	$92,000	$70	65
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #134	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-7%)	9mo	$75,000	$55	63
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #165	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-11%)	1mo	$94,500	$73	62
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #372	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	11mo	$93,000	$60	62
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #28	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+8%)	12mo	$34,000	$22	55
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #261	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+12%)	12mo	$149,900	$92	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $61,208
• Equity at exit: $19,152

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.17×
• Total profit: $128,468
• Equity at exit: $23,480

Cash invested: $17,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,914 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$336
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$80 /mo · $960/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $1,070

Break-even live

Break-even rent $560

Max offer price $64,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,000
• Closing costs: $1,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	5d	1	0.17mi
16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$1,900	$1.21	43d	1	0.26mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	43d	1	0.28mi
11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	0.28mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	24d	1	0.37mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	24d	1	0.37mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	1d	1	0.43mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	12d	1	0.43mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	24d	1	0.45mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	5d	1	0.45mi
11429 W Austin Thomas Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,875	$1.22	43d	1	0.78mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	43d	1	0.87mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	24d	1	1.06mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	24d	1	1.06mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	1d	3	1.17mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	43d	1	1.25mi
14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$2,040	$1.24	43d	1	1.25mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	24d	2	1.28mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	21d	1	1.30mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	24d	1	1.30mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	1d	17	1.30mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	43d	1	1.35mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	5d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 345-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $64,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,585
• − Property taxes: −$960
• − Insurance: −$320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$1,862
• Taxable income: $12,565
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,016
• After-tax cash flow: $9,820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on the ceiling and interior cabinets. Upgrades to the interior walls and replacement of cabinets would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major ceiling — peeling paint
• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom cabinets — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases appeal
• Both replace bathroom cabinets — modernizes the space and increases appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
ceiling · peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$16,000–56,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑
• Both replace bathroom cabinets — modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $64,000 ARMLS