5306 Garden Cove Rd · Callaway, FL 32404

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1986 4,356 sqft lot Est $199k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready. Perfect for first home or downsizing; a solid investment property. Brick and Vinyl, two bedroom, two bath home with single-car garage. Privacy fenced back yard with shade trees for your relaxation. Roof replaced in 2004, new HVAC system last year, new refrigerator with ice-maker, good appliances. Convenient location in Callaway, close to the Super WalMart and Tyndall AFB.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($990/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.1% in Callaway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $175k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,526 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.02%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,136
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5306 Garden Cove Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,016 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$172	94
5319 Garden Cove Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,138 (+12%)	1mo	$193,500	$170	77
5329 Garden Cove Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+9%)	10mo	$205,000	$185	72
607 Jennings Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,032 (+2%)	7mo	$201,900	$196	60
5811 Jasmine Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	924 (-9%)	12mo	$207,000	$224	54
925 Bonnie Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,142 (+12%)	1mo	$260,000	$228	49
929 Bonnie Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,142 (+12%)	2mo	$259,500	$227	46
931 Bonnie Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,142 (+12%)	4mo	$260,000	$228	44
719 Bob Little Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,166 (+15%)	9mo	$210,000	$180	43
927 Bonnie Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,142 (+12%)	10mo	$265,000	$232	41
165 Hill Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+13%)	8mo	$85,000	$74	36
116 Martin Lake Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,143 (+12%)	12mo	$140,000	$122	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-26,117
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-27,876
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $143	+0% $82	+5% $22	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $18	+0% $82	+5% $147	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $127	base $82	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
526 Camellia Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,950	$1.42	21d	1	0.16mi
420 Raven Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,750	$1.40	21d	1	0.32mi
5101 Willow St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,500	$1.36	14d	1	0.35mi
4905 Alameda St Unit 1 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	942	$1,295	$1.37	21d	1	0.41mi
208 North Highway 22 A Unit 33 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,350	$1.25	21d	1	0.47mi
229 Callaway Chase Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,650	$1.38	14d	1	0.55mi
129 Seneca Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,495	$1.03	14d	1	0.63mi
149 North Highway 22 A Unit 5 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,140	$1.27	14d	1	0.66mi
5117 E 10th St Apt A Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,200	$1.28	14d	1	0.70mi
5117 E 10th St Unit D Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	950	$1,250	$1.32	14d	1	0.70mi
6101 Harvey St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1108	$1,050	$0.95	21d	1	0.77mi
6121 Harvey St Apt 16 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,090	$1.09	21d	1	0.77mi
6121 Harvey St Unit 8 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,050	$0.88	21d	1	0.77mi
906 Kevin Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,795	$1.42	21d	1	0.78mi
5805 Cherry St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,200	$1.17	14d	1	0.80mi
3914 E 11th St #301 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,000	$1.16	21d	1	0.96mi
322 S Burkett Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	600	$1,519	$2.53	14d	13	1.08mi
114 S Kimbrel Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	21d	1	1.10mi
237 Helen Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	21d	1	1.14mi
168 N Comet Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	21d	1	1.14mi
3719 E 8th Ct Panama City, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,300	$1.37	21d	1	1.15mi
5115 E 14th St Unit 3 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$1,250	$1.28	21d	1	1.20mi
4837 S Lakewood Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1116	$1,500	$1.34	21d	1	1.21mi
4141 E 15th St Panama City, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1082	$1,825	$1.69	14d	9	1.25mi
509 Phillips Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,700	$1.20	14d	1	1.26mi
5813 Hickory St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	21d	1	1.28mi
6328 Olokee St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,850	$1.64	14d	1	1.30mi
175 N Berthe Ave Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1498	$2,195	$1.47	14d	1	1.32mi
543 N 9th St Unit 543 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	14d	1	1.40mi
116 Christie Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,550	$1.42	21d	1	1.41mi
4828 Grimes St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,150	$1.35	21d	1	1.42mi
1401 Transmitter Rd Unit 15 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	14d	1	1.45mi
6724 Chipewa St Unit 6724 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2010-08-17
   soldstatus $69,000
4. 2010-08-17
   soldstatus $69,000
5. 2010-08-06
   soldstatus $69,000 389-char remark

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Move-in ready. Perfect for first home or downsizing; a solid investment property. Brick and Vinyl, two bedroom, two bath home with single-car garage. Privacy fenced back yard with shade trees for your relaxation. Roof replaced in 2004, new HVAC system last year, new refrigerator with ice-maker, good appliances. Convenient location in Callaway, close to the Super WalMart and Tyndall AFB.

6. 2010-04-17
   listed $69,900 389-char remark

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Move-in ready. Perfect for first home or downsizing; a solid investment property. Brick and Vinyl, two bedroom, two bath home with single-car garage. Privacy fenced back yard with shade trees for your relaxation. Roof replaced in 2004, new HVAC system last year, new refrigerator with ice-maker, good appliances. Convenient location in Callaway, close to the Super WalMart and Tyndall AFB.

7. 2004-03-31
   soldstatus $70,500
8. 2004-03-29
   soldstatus $70,500 318-char remark

   Show marketing remark (318 chars)

   Great for first-time home buyer or rental property. Conenviently located to schools and shopping in Callaway. Sales price includes cost of new roof to be replaced prior to closing. Rm sizes, SF, and lot size are approximate. NOTE: PLS GIVE TIME FOR ACCEPTANCE OF CONTRACT, SINCE SELLER IS ON A SHIP IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

9. 2004-02-27
   listed $69,900 318-char remark

   Show marketing remark (318 chars)

   Great for first-time home buyer or rental property. Conenviently located to schools and shopping in Callaway. Sales price includes cost of new roof to be replaced prior to closing. Rm sizes, SF, and lot size are approximate. NOTE: PLS GIVE TIME FOR ACCEPTANCE OF CONTRACT, SINCE SELLER IS ON A SHIP IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

10. 1986-01-01
    soldstatus $41,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$458
• After-tax cash flow: $1,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Callaway

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #14384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callaway, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+317.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $175,000 CPARMLS
• 2010-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2010-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2010-08-06 Sold (MLS) $69,000 CPARMLS
• 2010-04-17 Listed $69,900 CPARMLS
• 2004-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 2004-03-29 Sold (MLS) $70,500 CPARMLS
• 2004-02-27 Listed $69,900 CPARMLS
• 1986-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $332 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.