44123 Kelly Dr · North Fort Myers, FL 33982

$419,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,615 sqft · Land · 146 Days on market

Built 2025 6,098 sqft lot $369/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home in Verde, a stunning 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom Talon floorplan that maximizes its spacious square footage with style and functionality. This beautifully designed residence features a 2-car garage and an open-concept layout, where the expansive family room seamlessly flows into a cozy café area and a modern, open kitchen, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Extend your living space outdoors with the upgraded covered lanai, creating a comfortable and inviting outdoor retreat. Nestled in the heart of Babcock Ranch, residents enjoy access to a heated saltwater pool, a charming farmer's market, multiple parks and playgrounds, scenic biking trails, and the p

Key facts

• Multiple parks
• Scenic biking trails
• Open concept layout

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPGRADED COVERED LANAI
• HEATED SALTWATER POOL
• MULTIPLE PARKS
• SCENIC BIKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total units in community: 399; Single unit per building; Two floors
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $228 monthly; Master HOA fee $141 monthly; One-time fee $1,534; Total annual recurring fees $6,450; Professional management; HOA maintenance includes internet/Wi‑Fi, lawn/land maintenance, security, street lights, and street maintenance; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, fitness center (attended), cabana, business center, community room, park, dog park, bike and jog paths, sidewalks, streetlights, picnic/BBQ areas, bike storage, bocce court, pickleball, tennis, basketball, golf course, fishing pier, restaurant, electric vehicle charging, underground utilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Community security (through HOA maintenance)
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family home; Two-story; Rear exposure faces north; Residential property in Babcock Ranch (Verde)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Built in 2025; Architectural restrictions
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Impact-resistant doors and windows; Single-hung and sliding windows

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas available; Kitchen island; Pantry; Cooktop (gas); Range; Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator/freezer; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Primary bath with dual sinks and a shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Foyer; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Great room floor plan; Split-bedroom layout; Loft; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer and dryer included; Tankless water heater; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-474 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 761 students, 52% FRL); Punta Gorda Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,120 students, 41% FRL); Lemon Bay High School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,360 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 1044 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,191/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 43% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $319,134 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-94,492
• Equity at exit: $62,622

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-105,348
• Equity at exit: $36,313

Cash invested: $117,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33982

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 1044
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,988/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$369
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,792

Max offer price $336,198

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-237	-5% $-355	+0% $-474	+5% $-593	+10% $-712
Rent	-10% $-726	-5% $-600	+0% $-474	+5% $-348	+10% $-222
Rate	-1.0pp $-263	-0.5pp $-368	base $-474	+0.5pp $-583	+1.0pp $-694

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,998
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17710 Shade Tree Loop Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1764	$3,000	$1.70	23d	1	0.88mi
17604 Fallen Branch Way Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,700	$1.33	23d	1	0.92mi
16397 Preservation Blvd Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	3.5	2353	$2,800	$1.19	23d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $369 · $4,428/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $419,990
3. 2026-04-03
   price $435,750
4. 2026-04-03
   status Active
5. 2026-02-09
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-22
   price $419,990
7. 2025-12-14
   price $473,750
8. 2025-11-24
   price $449,990
9. 2025-10-21
   listed $451,750 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,988 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,486 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$498/yr (+$41/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,526
• − Property taxes: −$2,988
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,064
• − Management: −$3,064
• − HOA: −$4,428
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$13,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,142
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte
• NCES district ID: 1200240
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,864
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2586
• State rank: #22 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,006
• Household income: $72,443
• Rent vs Own: 11.2% rent · 88.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 43.0

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,646 people
• By 2030: 210,507 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 230,857 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 247,148 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 281,777 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 293,609 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.7% · R 66.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.25%
• Current HPI: 448.5895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.13%
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — BEARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $419,990 BEARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $435,750 BEARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — BEARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Pending — BEARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $419,990 BEARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $473,750 BEARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $449,990 BEARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $451,750 BEARMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,988 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.