811 E Mesquite Ln · Victoria, TX 77901

$79,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2008 6,102 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

811 E Mesquite is a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering 1,296 square feet of living space and plenty of potential for its next owner. Inside, you'll find a spacious living area that flows into the kitchen and dining space, creating an open and functional layout. The primary suite features its own private bathroom and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy a fenced backyard with room for pets, play, or future improvements. Investors will appreciate the value-add potential, while buyers looking for an affordable home can make it their own with a few personal touches. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Private bathroom

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; 1 story; Resale property; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Composition / shingle roof; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Private yard; City lot, level, less than quarter acre; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Some electric appliances; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (listed as 'Other')
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric, one unit)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Garden tub / Roman tub; Open floorplan; Separate shower; Vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Pantry; Laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $549 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,209 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.45%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $7,483
• Equity at exit: $11,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $22,984
• Equity at exit: $6,865

Cash invested: $22,232 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$416
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,600/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $843

Max offer price $79,400

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,850
• Closing costs: $2,382
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3001 Arroyo Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,330	$1.55	43d	4	0.10mi
305 E Sabine St Unit A Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	1224	$1,150	$0.94	43d	1	0.89mi
1906 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	678	$1,255	$1.85	43d	9	0.98mi
1603 E Brazos St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$975	$1.22	43d	6	1.04mi
1810 E Colorado St Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,425	$1.57	43d	8	1.08mi
118 Milann St Unit B Victoria, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,175	$1.26	43d	1	1.09mi
111 Monterrey Dr Unit A Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,295	$1.28	43d	1	1.11mi
3104 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,050	$1.14	43d	2	1.13mi
114 Avant Garde Dr Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,595	$1.15	43d	1	1.14mi
1702 N Moody St Apt C1 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.5	945	$1,050	$1.11	43d	1	1.15mi
1709 Navidad St Victoria, TX	4.0	1.0	1457	$1,595	$1.09	43d	1	1.16mi
2601 Leary Ln #14 Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	43d	1	1.36mi
2406 E Mockingbird Ln Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,300	$1.26	43d	4	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,400 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,400 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,400 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,400 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $79,400 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,500 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,500 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,500 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,500 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $79,500 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $84,855 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,855 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 680-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    listed $84,855 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,600 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,600 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,448
• − Property taxes: −$2,600
• − Insurance: −$397
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$2,310
• Taxable income: $3,580
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$859
• After-tax cash flow: $3,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+17.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $84,855 CTXMLS
• 2019-10-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-02-18 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2018-08-27 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2018-08-10 Listed $72,000 CTXMLS
• 2008-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,600 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.