1528 Rancho Way · Yuba City, CA 95993

$263,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1961 0.36 ac lot Est $411k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home presents a unique opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers ready to bring their vision to life. The existing layout includes a kitchen and a spacious great room, offering a functional starting point for renovation and redesign. The property has sustained fire damage and will require repairs, making it ideal for those looking to restore and customize a home to their own tastes.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Kitchen

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.5% in Yuba City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#111 in CA, #3,863 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, cost of living F.
• Yuba City Unified (urban): math 20% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #263 of 517 in CA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 73 units permitted in Sutter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sutter County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,738 (5.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.96%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $411,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1685 Augusta Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-0%)	2mo	$435,000	$291	78
1660 Edwin Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,459 (-3%)	4mo	$395,000	$271	78
908 Mesa Verde	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+6%)	1mo	$415,000	$260	76
1544 Portola Valley Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,543 (+3%)	3mo	$360,000	$233	67
1419 Johnathan Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,583 (+6%)	0mo	$440,000	$278	64
1559 Rushing St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	2mo	$372,000	$287	63
1061 Courtyard Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-4%)	0mo	$380,000	$263	61
1977 Sofia Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,583 (+6%)	1mo	$470,000	$297	61
1086 Arbor Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-4%)	3mo	$340,000	$235	60
1558 Sheena Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,644 (+10%)	2mo	$450,000	$274	56
1716 Wingfoot Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,679 (+12%)	1mo	$474,000	$282	50
2024 Aaron Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,706 (+14%)	6mo	$450,000	$264	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-15,555
• Equity at exit: $39,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $20,930
• Equity at exit: $22,739

Cash invested: $73,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95993

• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,487 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $263,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $576	-5% $501	+0% $427	+5% $353	+10% $278
Rent	-10% $231	-5% $329	+0% $427	+5% $525	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $559	-0.5pp $494	base $427	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,750
• Closing costs: $7,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1850 Waltrip Ct Yuba City, CA	4.0	2.0	1611	$2,400	$1.49	44d	1	0.36mi
1105 Johnathan Dr Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,400	$1.37	14d	1	0.50mi
1806 Augusta Ln Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1569	$2,400	$1.53	14d	1	0.53mi
1147 Sam Rider Way Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,250	$1.40	14d	1	0.57mi
1151 John Wayne Dr Yuba City, CA	4.0	2.0	1968	$2,400	$1.22	44d	1	0.58mi
1198 Reo Dr Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,400	$1.75	14d	1	0.60mi
1198 Reo Dr Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,500	$1.83	22d	1	0.60mi
1486 Jodi Dr Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,450	$1.40	14d	1	0.72mi
2026 La Rabyn Way Yuba City, CA	4.0	3.0	2246	$2,600	$1.16	14d	1	0.75mi
686 Anna Dr Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,400	$1.49	44d	1	0.76mi
1007 Mariposa Dr Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,550	$1.52	44d	1	0.78mi
859 Jones Rd #1 Yuba City, CA	2.0	2.0	1714	$2,325	$1.36	44d	1	0.82mi
1094 Tara Ct Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1375	$2,250	$1.64	14d	1	0.82mi
1094 Tara Ct Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1375	$2,350	$1.71	44d	1	0.82mi
1902 Autumnwood Dr Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,250	$1.32	44d	1	0.83mi
911 Mariposa Dr Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.5	2101	$2,450	$1.17	22d	1	0.94mi
750 Lincoln Rd Yuba City, CA	2.0	1.5	1426	$2,000	$1.40	14d	1	1.07mi
800 Andrew Dr Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,600	$1.69	44d	1	1.07mi
795 Railroad Ave Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1397	$2,100	$1.50	14d	1	1.12mi
421 Hetherington Cir Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.5	1655	$2,075	$1.25	14d	1	1.17mi
1182 Franklin Ave Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1679	$2,395	$1.43	22d	1	1.23mi
590 Teesdale Rd Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1855	$2,500	$1.35	14d	1	1.29mi
1602 Wildflower Cir Unit 1602 Yuba City, CA	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,200	$1.52	14d	1	1.34mi
1215 Whyler Rd Yuba City, CA	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,000	$1.04	22d	1	1.47mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,999 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,408/yr (+$117/mo · 238.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,732
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,388
• − Management: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$7,651
• Taxable income: $784
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$188
• After-tax cash flow: $4,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yuba City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0643470
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,923
• Composite: 31.55/100
• National rank: #5956
• State rank: #263 of 517 in CA

Livability — Yuba City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3863

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yuba City, CA
• County: Sutter County · 81,625 people
• City population: 81,625
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,046
• Household income: $93,763
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 738.0

Population outlook (Sutter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,244 people
• By 2030: 97,170 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 96,137 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 93,604 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 85,008 · -12.6%
• By 2100: 71,584 · -26.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 12% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Other Indo-European 20% Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sutter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.1% · R 64.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+16.3 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -280.05%
• Current HPI: 210.9131
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.