3509 Celestial Way · North Fort Myers, FL 33903

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1979 4,250 sqft lot Est $114k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own in this popular 55+ community.

Key facts

• New large lanai
• New vapor barrier
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW VAPOR BARRIER
• NEW CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER
• NEW PAINTING INSIDE AND OUT
• NEW LARGE LANAI
• GAS GRILLE IN THE LANAI

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family house; 1,120 sq ft living area
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 4,250 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 472 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.48%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3204 Pluto Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-1%)	7mo	$110,000	$100	80
3500 Celestial Way	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-2%)	24mo	$85,000	$77	76
3167 Pluto Cir	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+3%)	15mo	$126,000	$110	74
9250 Caloosa Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,149 (+3%)	17mo	$139,500	$121	64
16042 Citron Way	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,288 (+15%)	4mo	$132,000	$102	62
16034 Citron Way	0.19mi	2/2.0	960 (-14%)	7mo	$125,000	$130	62
16041 Citron Way	0.22mi	2/2.0	960 (-14%)	6mo	$92,000	$96	61
170 Lakeside Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+7%)	14mo	$79,000	$66	56
9209 Bonita Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,274 (+14%)	14mo	$135,000	$106	50
486 Horizon Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	13mo	$110,000	$102	50
612 Sunrise Ave	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,049 (-6%)	13mo	$173,000	$165	46
516 Horizon Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,198 (+7%)	14mo	$119,500	$100	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $504
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $17,793
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33903

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $752/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,082

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3404 Rainbow Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	3d	1	0.11mi
28 Nyborg Ave North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,299	$1.25	14d	1	0.39mi
8791 Littleton Rd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,549	$1.44	24d	1	0.68mi
2774 Wedgewood Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	24d	1	0.71mi
266 Mongoose Ln #266 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,499	$1.09	3d	1	0.79mi
571 Sunrise Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$1,400	$1.39	24d	1	0.82mi
4120 Pine Drop Ln North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	957	$1,895	$1.98	24d	1	0.93mi
3260 Stockton St North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	976	$2,371	$2.43	2d	27	1.15mi
2095 Eloise Cir North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	24d	1	1.16mi
535 Zebra Dr #535 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,499	$1.11	14d	1	1.18mi
2027 Eloise Cir North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	822	$1,300	$1.58	3d	1	1.18mi
3957 Pomodoro Cir #301 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	16d	1	1.18mi
3953 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,462	$1.40	14d	9	1.20mi
3961 Pomodoro Cir #204 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	24d	1	1.22mi
3961 Pomodoro Cir #204 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	16d	1	1.22mi
3940 Villa Del Mar CIR Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,116	$2.01	2d	21	1.27mi
3944 Pomodoro Cir #202 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	24d	1	1.28mi
2904 Tuscan Dr #303 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$1,450	$0.99	24d	1	1.30mi
538 State St North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,199	$1.20	24d	1	1.30mi
16363 Teresa Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	24d	1	1.30mi
3940 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,475	$1.16	3d	2	1.30mi
2700 Diplomat Pkwy E Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,382	$2.13	3d	41	1.31mi
3968 Pomodoro Cir #202 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,475	$1.00	14d	1	1.31mi
3973 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,498	$1.02	24d	2	1.33mi
3973 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1534	$1,575	$1.03	3d	3	1.33mi
2909 Tuscan Dr Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,475	$1.00	24d	2	1.34mi
2913 Tuscan Dr #102 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,450	$0.99	24d	1	1.34mi
260 Stockton St North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,200	$1.30	3d	1	1.35mi
248 Stockton St North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,300	$1.41	24d	1	1.36mi
247 Stockton St North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,325	$1.43	24d	1	1.38mi
446 San Bernardino St North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,590	$1.44	10d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $140,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $140,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-03-17
   listed $140,000 Active
4. 2024-07-25
   soldstatus $110,000
5. 2022-03-17
   soldstatus $90,000
6. 2022-03-16
   soldstatus $90,000 Closed 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Great opportunity to own in this popular 55+ community.

7. 2022-02-17
   status Pending 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Great opportunity to own in this popular 55+ community.

8. 2022-02-16
   status Active 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Great opportunity to own in this popular 55+ community.

9. 2022-02-16
   price $95,000 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   Great opportunity to own in this popular 55+ community.

10. 2022-01-13
    status Pending 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Great opportunity to own in this popular 55+ community.

11. 2022-01-11
    listed $110,000 Active 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Great opportunity to own in this popular 55+ community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $752 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$410/yr (+$34/mo · 54.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$752
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $3,162
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$759
• After-tax cash flow: $4,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,655
• Household income: $56,993
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 468.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.26%
• Current HPI: 256.773
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.94%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+27.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $140,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2024-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-16 Sold (MLS) $90,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-02-17 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-02-16 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2022-02-16 Price Changed $95,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-01-13 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-01-11 Listed $110,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $752 · -48.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.