8399 SE 68th Ct · Newberry, FL 32693

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1980 0.26 ac lot $171/sqft · at area comps Est $207k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for affordable waterfront property in beautiful North Central Florida? Well look no further! "Frog Hollow" is a beautiful 2/1 Stone front home located directly on gorgeous Lake Waccasassa! This home has incredible views of the lake as well as one of the only properties on the lake with its own small dock! The backyard is gorgeous and boasts a beautiful custom stone bbq grill. The property has a block outbuilding perfect for a workshop, or hurricane shelter. The front yard is perfect for an avid gardener, full of dozens of different kinds of roses and plants! You will not be disappointed with this property!

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Patio area
• Outdoor grill

Tags

• SCREENED IN PORCH
• OUTDOOR GRILL
• PATIO AREA
• FULLY FENCED PROPERTY
• 1 CAR CARPORT
• SPACIOUS STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family home; One story; Faces south; Homestead eligible
• Construction: Stone and frame construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.26-acre lot
• Exterior features: Front porch (screened); Outdoor storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-147/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilchrist (rural): math 66% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #9 of 73 in FL (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Gilchrist County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Gilchrist County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,517 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,931
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -3.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7089 SE 80th Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,307 (+12%)	0mo	$274,000	$210	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $107,554
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $317,242
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32693

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,561/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,591

Max offer price $196,842

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $199,000 Active 1474-char remark
17. 2022-02-01
    soldstatus $145,000
18. 2022-01-27
    soldstatus $145,000 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Are you looking for affordable waterfront property in beautiful North Central Florida? Well look no further! "Frog Hollow" is a beautiful 2/1 Stone front home located directly on gorgeous Lake Waccasassa! This home has incredible views of the lake as well as one of the only properties on the lake with its own small dock! The backyard is gorgeous and boasts a beautiful custom stone bbq grill. The property has a block outbuilding perfect for a workshop, or hurricane shelter. The front yard is perfect for an avid gardener, full of dozens of different kinds of roses and plants! You will not be disappointed with this property!

19. 2021-09-27
    listed $164,900 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Are you looking for affordable waterfront property in beautiful North Central Florida? Well look no further! "Frog Hollow" is a beautiful 2/1 Stone front home located directly on gorgeous Lake Waccasassa! This home has incredible views of the lake as well as one of the only properties on the lake with its own small dock! The backyard is gorgeous and boasts a beautiful custom stone bbq grill. The property has a block outbuilding perfect for a workshop, or hurricane shelter. The front yard is perfect for an avid gardener, full of dozens of different kinds of roses and plants! You will not be disappointed with this property!

20. 2017-02-10
    soldstatus $26,500

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    Love a Charming Setting? This 2 bedroom/ 1 bath quaint cottage style home overlooking picturesque wetland features a detached large block outbuilding with storage and laundry hook-up. The cozy living room features a fireplace, large nicely equipped kitchen, and spacious bathroom and bedrooms. The entire property is fenced with entry gate boast loads of curb appeal! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Auction Property.

21. 2016-04-11
    listed $62,900

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    Love a Charming Setting? This 2 bedroom/ 1 bath quaint cottage style home overlooking picturesque wetland features a detached large block outbuilding with storage and laundry hook-up. The cozy living room features a fireplace, large nicely equipped kitchen, and spacious bathroom and bedrooms. The entire property is fenced with entry gate boast loads of curb appeal! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Auction Property.

22. 2015-08-19
    historical
23. 2015-02-15
    listed $35,000
24. 2006-06-23
    soldstatus $115,000
25. 2006-06-19
    soldstatus $115,000
26. 2006-04-05
    listed $120,000
27. 2002-10-03
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,561 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$90/yr (+$8/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,561
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$868
• After-tax cash flow: $721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilchrist
• NCES district ID: 1200630
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,610
• Composite: 53.01/100
• National rank: #1522
• State rank: #9 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,704
• Population (ZIP): 11,692

Population outlook (Gilchrist County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,730 people
• By 2030: 17,722 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 17,393 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 16,597 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 14,300 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,498 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Gilchrist

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.81%
• Current HPI: 363.4299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+237.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-27 Sold (MLS) $145,000 DGLMLS
• 2021-09-27 Listed $164,900 DGLMLS
• 2017-02-10 Sold (MLS) $26,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-11 Listed $62,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-15 Listed $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-19 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-05 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,561 · -25.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.