2403 Baton Pl · The Villages, FL 32162

$305,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2004 3,600 sqft lot Est $267k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Now offered at $305,000!! This charming 2-bed, 2-bath COLONY Patio Villa in the Village of Bonnybrook delivers exceptional value, modern updates, and the low-maintenance lifestyle loved by Villages residents. The villa provides comfort, style, and is close to shopping, recreation, golf and everyday conveniences you've come to expect. Enjoy peace of mind with a 2023 ROOF and NO carpet throughout. The REMODELED KITCHEN features soft-close white cabinetry, expanded counter space and a thoughtful redesign that relocated the refrigerator to the end of the new cabinet run, creating a more open and functional layout. Two GLASS FRONT Cabinets are the perfect place to display your favorite glasses a

Key facts

• Interior laundry
• Above-ground spa
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• ABOVE-GROUND SPA
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR RETREAT
• CONCRETE PRIVACY WALL
• CUSTOM BARN DOOR
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 40 x 90 (0.08 acres); Roads are asphalt/paved
• Financial info: Community Development District (CDD) present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Clubhouse; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Dog park; Golf carts allowed; Golf; Playground; Pool; Tennis courts; Street lights; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; South facing; Entry on main level
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder model: COLONY; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Sprinkler meter; Irrigation equipment; Sprinkler recycled

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Living room / dining room combo; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet; Laundry in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-363/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $177k; list at $305k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,904 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,036
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2351 Pine Ridge St	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	3mo	$282,500	$244	93
2306 Oak Bend Pl	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	1mo	$265,000	$229	91
2657 Hastings Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	0mo	$260,000	$225	80
2369 Five Forks Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+7%)	0mo	$305,000	$246	75
3273 Riverton Rd	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,143 (-1%)	1mo	$225,000	$197	74
2169 Smoaks St	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+4%)	3mo	$260,000	$217	72
392 Rose Croft Ter	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	3mo	$275,000	$231	71
3622 Cambria Cir	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	2mo	$254,900	$221	70
2598 Hialeah Ave	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-3%)	1mo	$190,000	$170	70
2757 Plainridge Loop	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,142 (-1%)	2mo	$320,000	$280	69
2858 Leicester Ter	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,178 (+2%)	2mo	$374,900	$318	61
664 Evelynton Loop	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	2mo	$339,000	$272	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-49,198
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-36,318
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,389 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,292/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,427

Max offer price $299,659

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $56	+0% $-30	+5% $-117	+10% $-203
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-125	+0% $-30	+5% $64	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $47	base $-30	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3292 Riverton Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,100	$1.84	22d	1	0.54mi
3260 Atwell Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	22d	1	0.60mi
650 Richland Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$4,500	$3.79	22d	1	0.61mi
2111 Thornton Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$4,400	$3.81	22d	1	0.64mi
3489 Cambria Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,745	$1.47	22d	1	0.67mi
2864 Leicester Ter Unit 1525680P The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,090	$1.85	22d	1	0.74mi
2685 Craven Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$4,600	$3.98	22d	1	0.78mi
12020 Brush Hill Rd Oxford, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,835	$1.94	22d	15	0.84mi
2390 Southern Oak St The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$5,300	$4.58	22d	1	0.86mi
3207 Woodridge Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,200	$3.66	22d	1	0.87mi
2340 Pickens Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,900	$1.64	22d	1	0.87mi
3545 Idlewood Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$4,500	$3.63	22d	1	0.92mi
4460 County Road 472 Unit A Oxford, FL	2.0	1.0	860	$1,300	$1.51	22d	1	0.98mi
971 Kingmont Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$3,400	$2.44	22d	1	1.04mi
5308 Bowline Ct Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,800	$1.28	22d	1	1.04mi
888 Radclife Berea Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,200	$3.26	22d	1	1.04mi
12388 NE 48th Loop Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	22d	1	1.08mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	22d	10	1.14mi
5336 Edgewater Way Unit 5336 Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1291	$2,000	$1.55	22d	1	1.15mi
10457 Bethel PL Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1293	$1,974	$1.53	22d	41	1.27mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $305,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $305,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $305,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $305,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $315,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $315,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $315,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $315,000 Active
19. 2014-09-15
    soldstatus $177,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,292 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,532 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 10.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥109°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$2,292
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,293
• − Management: −$2,293
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$5,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $1,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+78.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $177,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,292 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.