15 Holly Ct · Bloomingburg, NY 12721

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 24 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition Est $58k · 46% over $1177/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2025 manufactured home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms in the desirable Twin Lakes Village community. Step inside to an open concept layout featuring modern finishes, recessed lighting, and a spacious kitchen complete with a large center island, sleek black appliances, and ample cabinet space. The bright living and dining areas create an inviting space perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. The primary suite offers a private full bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Outside, enjoy a private driveway and welcoming front entry in a peaceful community setting. Twin Lakes V

Key facts

• Large center island
• Private driveway
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• SLEEK BLACK APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• WELCOMING FRONT ENTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Monthly association fee ($1,177) covering water, sewer, and trash; Community amenities include clubhouse, playground, basketball court, and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured house; Property type: Manufactured Home; Living area based on plans
• Construction: Single-wide structure
• Exterior features: Single-wide manufactured home; Not waterfront; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath; Kitchen island; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.6% in Bloomingburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,175 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: cost of living D+, housing D+, crime F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Bush Elementary School (math 12% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,771 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 649 students, 53% FRL); Crispell Middle School (math 17% / reading 46%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 633 students, 52% FRL); Pine Bush Senior High School (math 92% / reading 67%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,615 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 29% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.58%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,080
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54 Ponderosa Rd	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+4%)	1mo	$60,000	$55	72
5 Oak Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,001 (-5%)	6mo	$60,000	$60	70
26 Redwood St	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-5%)	12mo	$34,000	$34	68
9 Oak Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	926 (-12%)	10mo	$47,500	$51	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $10,466
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $42,446
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12721

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$1,177
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,233

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 North Rd Bloomingburg, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	19d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,177 · $14,124/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $85,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $85,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$14,124
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,158
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$998
• After-tax cash flow: $3,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2025 manufactured home in Twin Lakes Village is in good condition with modern finishes and a good layout. It's move-in ready with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping around the front entry — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Resale Refrigerator and other appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping around the front entry — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Resale Refrigerator and other appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bloomingburg

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1175
• US rank: #25817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,590

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scandinavian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.80%
• Current HPI: 320.383
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $85,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid