Plan 1754 Plan · Commerce City, CO 80022

$395,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,754 sqft · MultiFamily · 548 Days on market

↓ 12% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

* 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

Key facts

• Loft
• Private side yard
• Kitchen island

Tags

• PRIVATE SIDE YARD
• DOWNSTAIRS OFFICE SPACE
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• LOFT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS

🏗️ New construction. The $395,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $534,960.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $396k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#137 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• School District 27J (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 86 in CO (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Turnberry Elementary (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #660 of 966 statewide, top 70%, 762 students, 34% FRL); Otho E Stuart Middle School (math 10% / reading 44%, grade F, #154 of 270 statewide, top 59%, 791 students, 42% FRL); Prairie View High School (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #262 of 381 statewide, top 69%, 1,821 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 548 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $301,649 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 548 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.53%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $534,960
• List price: $395,990
• Delta: -25.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-171,477
• Equity at exit: $79,764

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-261,574
• Equity at exit: $46,254

Cash invested: $149,789 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80022

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,805
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$669 /mo · $8,024/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-1,314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,680

Max offer price $344,828

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-944	-5% $-1,129	+0% $-1,314	+5% $-1,499	+10% $-1,684
Rent	-10% $-1,552	-5% $-1,433	+0% $-1,314	+5% $-1,195	+10% $-1,076
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,045	-0.5pp $-1,178	base $-1,314	+0.5pp $-1,453	+1.0pp $-1,594

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,740
• Closing costs: $16,049
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13518 E 111th Ave Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,000	$1.76	45d	1	0.09mi
10994 Uvalda St Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.5	1882	$2,930	$1.56	26d	1	0.15mi
13937 E 105th Pl Commerce City, CO	3.0	3.0	1686	$2,749	$1.63	7d	1	0.64mi
13893 E 104th Pl Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.0	1325	$2,800	$2.11	45d	1	0.71mi
10464 Ursula St Commerce City, CO	3.0	3.0	1864	$2,800	$1.50	26d	1	0.76mi
12421 E 105th Pl Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.5	2363	$3,070	$1.30	0d	1	0.80mi
12432 E 105th Ave Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.5	2170	$3,500	$1.61	20d	1	0.92mi
14350 E 104th Ave Commerce City, CO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1155	$2,115	$1.83	0d	14	1.04mi
5130 Bittercress Rd Brighton, CO	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,790	$1.57	22d	1	1.04mi
10167 Vaughn St Commerce City, CO	3.0	2.5	2012	$3,100	$1.54	13d	1	1.09mi
10550 Paris St Henderson, CO	2.0	2.5	1425	$2,200	$1.54	26d	1	1.34mi
10565 Paris St #905 Henderson, CO	3.0	2.5	1790	$3,000	$1.68	45d	1	1.34mi
15068 E 103rd Pl Commerce City, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$2,582	$2.68	0d	22	1.37mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $395,990 Active 548 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,990 Active 545 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,990 Active 544 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,990 Active 543 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,990 Active 542 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,990 Active 540 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,990 Active 539 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,990 Active 536 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,990 Active 535 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $395,990 Active 534 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $395,990 Active 531 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,990 Active 530 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,990 Active 529 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,990 Active 528 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,990 Active 527 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $395,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    * 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

17. 2026-05-01
    price $392,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    * 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

18. 2026-03-13
    price $389,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    * 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

19. 2026-02-21
    price $384,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    * 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

20. 2026-02-06
    price $394,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    * 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

21. 2025-10-11
    price $404,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    * 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

22. 2025-10-08
    price $434,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    * 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

23. 2025-10-04
    price $404,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    * 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

24. 2025-05-03
    price $434,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    * 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

25. 2025-04-26
    price $429,990 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    * 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

26. 2024-12-20
    listed $449,990 Active 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    * 2-car garage * Private side yard * Open floor plan * Downstairs office space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Upstairs laundry room * Kitchen island * Loft * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen USB charging port * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Swimming pool * Hiking trails nearby * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Commuter-friendly location

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,966
• − Property taxes: −$8,024
• − Insurance: −$2,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,896
• − Management: −$2,896
• − Depreciation: −$15,562
• Taxable loss: −$25,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,197
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: School District 27J
• NCES district ID: 0802580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $79,576
• Composite: 27.72/100
• National rank: #6904
• State rank: #46 of 86 in CO

Livability — Commerce City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #11491

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commerce City, CO
• County: Adams County · 464,133 people
• City population: 13,818
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• Population (ZIP): 61,452
• Household income: $104,396
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1581.0

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 598,184 people
• By 2030: 651,880 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 759,778 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 862,889 · +44.3%
• By 2075: 1,085,994 · +81.5%
• By 2100: 1,211,318 · +102.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 36% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.2% · R 44.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+16.3 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.35%
• Current HPI: 643.12
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $395,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $392,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $389,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $384,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $394,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $404,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $434,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $404,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $434,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-26 Price Changed $429,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-20 Listed $449,990 Zillow