12526 Lacey Dr · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$219,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1983 8,751 sqft lot Est $243k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome home to this charming Florida cottage located in the heart of New Port Richey! This impeccably maintained residence offers a spacious and inviting layout, perfect for families or those who love to entertain. Beautiful and modern new luxury plank flooring provides both stunning esthetics and waterproof durability. The bright and airy living spaces feature large windows that fill the home with natural light. The well-appointed kitchen boasts beautiful ALL WOOD cabinets, gorgeous QUARTZ countertops and STAINLESS-STEEL appliances, making meal prep a delight. The master suite provides a serene retreat, while the additional bedroom offers plenty of

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• All wood cabinets
• 8,751 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW LUXURY PLANK FLOORING
• ALL WOOD CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Approximately 914 sq ft living area (per public records); Building area listed as 1,262 sq ft; Lot on asphalt road; Directions available
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car) with 25x10 dimensions; Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Private utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces northwest; R1 zoning
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.2-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Wood fencing; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Solid wood cabinets; Stone counters; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($188/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Elementary School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 642 students, 68% FRL); River Ridge Middle School (math 53% / reading 49%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,107 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $220k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,606 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,784
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12526 Lacey Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	914 (+6%)	0mo	$209,900	$230	90
12420 Lacey Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	13mo	$229,000	$281	74
12005 Wren Ct	0.57mi	2/2.0	962 (+11%)	1mo	$350,000	$364	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-39,966
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-54,129
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,995/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,786

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $78	+0% $16	+5% $-47	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-56	+0% $16	+5% $87	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $72	base $16	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12741 Poppy St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	23d	1	0.22mi
9251 Adler St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1006	$1,450	$1.44	26d	1	0.94mi
11691 Buchner Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,085	$2.10	1d	64	1.16mi
13015 Midvale Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   price $219,900
3. 2026-02-27
   listed $229,900 Active
4. 2026-01-12
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$1,995
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,605
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$865
• After-tax cash flow: $1,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moon Lake, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+119.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,995 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.