1838 S 19th St · Springfield, IL 62703

$44,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · Other · 182 Days on market

Built 1915 4,800 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this 2 bedroom home with plenty of potential to make this your own or watch the money flow from your new investment.

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• Built 1915
• Listed 182 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.97%
• DSCR: 3.18
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $30,472
• Equity at exit: $6,561

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.56×
• Total profit: $93,143
• Equity at exit: $3,804

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62703

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,050 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $413

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $528	-5% $515	+0% $503	+5% $490	+10% $478
Rent	-10% $420	-5% $461	+0% $503	+5% $544	+10% $586
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $514	base $503	+0.5pp $491	+1.0pp $480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2005 E Laurel St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.15mi
2271 E Laurel St Apt 2277 Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,145	$1.91	21d	1	0.37mi
2277 E Laurel St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,145	$1.91	44d	1	0.37mi
6 Ridge Ct Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	905	$1,350	$1.49	44d	1	0.78mi
2257 S 10th St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	0.92mi
2328 S 10th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.94mi
1600 S 6th St Unit 1 Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	21d	1	1.03mi
909 S 8th St Unit 4 Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	550	$800	$1.45	21d	1	1.14mi
1908 S 4th St Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	800	$850	$1.06	21d	1	1.18mi
507 S Wesley St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$975	$1.22	44d	1	1.25mi
2949 Fox Bridge Rd Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$960	$1.07	21d	1	1.31mi
604 Bryn Mawr Blvd Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	44d	1	1.38mi
619 S 5th St Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	44d	1	1.44mi
417 E Cook St Unit A Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	550	$850	$1.55	21d	1	1.44mi
417 E Cook St Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	700	$875	$1.25	44d	1	1.44mi
2473 Ladley Ct Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	580	$725	$1.25	44d	1	1.46mi
2473 Ladley Ct Unit 2412-1 L Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	44d	1	1.47mi
2473 Ladley Ct Unit 2108-2 B Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	44d	1	1.47mi
2473 Ladley Ct Unit 2520-8 RR Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	580	$600	$1.03	44d	1	1.47mi
1501 S Spring St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $44,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $44,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2025-11-30
   listed $44,000 Active 126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   Check out this 2 bedroom home with plenty of potential to make this your own or watch the money flow from your new investment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $930 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $964 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$34/yr (+$3/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,008
• − Management: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $5,688
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,365
• After-tax cash flow: $4,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,922
• Household income: $45,009
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1626.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.69%
• Current HPI: 147.0877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.19%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-30 Listed $44,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $930 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.