Zion Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$365,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,387 sqft · SingleFamily · 320 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Zion's open first floor creates a unified living space with a large great room that overlooks the kitchen and dining area. The upstairs loft can be used to best fit your family's needs and tech area is perfect for a home office.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Open first floor
• Tech area

Tags

• OPEN FIRST FLOOR
• LARGE GREAT ROOM
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• TECH AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $365,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan named Zion; Single-family home (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 11210 Bellewood Ter, Parrish FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction Plan: Zion); Living area approximately 2387

🏗️ New construction. The $365,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $436,821.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-472 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $321k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $321,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $436,821
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11344 Bellewood Ter	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,503 (+5%)	2mo	$389,000	$155	82
10413 Abundance Grove Way	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,193 (-8%)	2mo	$408,000	$186	80
10526 Abundance Grove Way	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,181 (-9%)	0mo	$457,000	$210	78
10429 Abundance Grove Way	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,631 (+10%)	0mo	$399,900	$152	78
10831 Budding Blossom Ct	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,486 (+4%)	1mo	$456,000	$183	78
11414 Starling Song Pl	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,486 (+4%)	0mo	$480,000	$193	78
10175 Hidden Hammock Loop	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,663 (+12%)	2mo	$429,990	$161	62
10049 Hidden Hammock Loop	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,226 (-7%)	1mo	$430,000	$193	62
10029 Hidden Hammock Loop	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,226 (-7%)	1mo	$455,647	$205	60
9972 Morning Meadowlark Trl	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+2%)	1mo	$394,000	$161	59
9977 Morning Meadowlark Trl	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,260 (-5%)	2mo	$337,296	$149	58
10636 Hidden Banks Gln	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,260 (-5%)	1mo	$362,000	$160	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-110,223
• Equity at exit: $65,131

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-170,979
• Equity at exit: $37,768

Cash invested: $122,310 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,224 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,291
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$546 /mo · $6,552/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,821

Max offer price $368,574

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-170	-5% $-321	+0% $-472	+5% $-623	+10% $-774
Rent	-10% $-726	-5% $-599	+0% $-472	+5% $-344	+10% $-217
Rate	-1.0pp $-252	-0.5pp $-361	base $-472	+0.5pp $-585	+1.0pp $-700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,205
• Closing costs: $13,105
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	25d	1	0.64mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	25d	1	0.75mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	12d	1	1.05mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	5d	1	1.14mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	5d	1	1.21mi
11628 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$3,500	$1.63	23d	1	1.27mi
11454 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,575	$1.57	17d	1	1.28mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	25d	1	1.29mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	25d	1	1.30mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	5d	1	1.39mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	21d	1	1.41mi
11884 Little River Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2142	$3,250	$1.52	17d	1	1.46mi
11880 Little River Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $365,000 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 317 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 316 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 315 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 314 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 312 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 311 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $365,000 Active 309 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 308 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $365,000 Active 307 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $365,000 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 302 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 301 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 300 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 299 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,469
• − Property taxes: −$6,552
• − Insurance: −$2,184
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,095
• − Management: −$3,095
• − Depreciation: −$12,708
• Taxable loss: −$13,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,219
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B