5223 Blue Sky Dr · Cetronia, PA 18069

$449,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,429 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2006 3,810 sqft lot Est $466k · at est. $53/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing Parkland Home! Just move in & enjoy this 3 BR 2.5 BA home with finished basement & 2 car gar. Distinctive upgraded features such as Hdwd flrs on 1st floor, trim molding pkg, & brushed nickel lighting fix thruout gives a feeling of elegance. There are over $70,000 upgrades in this immaculate home, included Designer selected paint colors. Kit. is upgraded to Cherry cabs w/ 42 inch uppers & base cabs equipped with rollout shelves. The Center Island includes under mount duel stainless steal sink, garbage disposal and Breakfast Nook. All appliances are GE Profile stainless! Master suite includes Tray ceiling, recessed lighting, large walk-in closet & Spa like Master Bath with upgraded tile, glass inlays, & soaking tub. Basement is finished (600+ sq feet) with gorgeous Acid Stained, Sealed concrete floor -great for a rec or media room. Close to all major routes, easy access to all needed necessities, and LOW monthly HOA fee. which takes care of lawn and makes this a MUST SEE HOME!

Key facts

• Finished basement
• Private paved patio
• New roof

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• PRIVATE PAVED PATIO
• NEW ROOF
• PARKLAND SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $53; Community sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic opener; 2 garage spaces; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electrical service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Two-story home; Has a view
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built with a full, partially finished basement; Below-grade finished area approximately 600; Above-grade finished area approximately 2,429
• Exterior features: Patio; Backs to common grounds; Paved public road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Hardwood in kitchen; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Multiple second-floor bedrooms (carpeted); Bedroom approximately 12 x 17 (second floor); Bedroom approximately 11 x 14 (second floor); Bedroom approximately 14 x 16 (second floor)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Full bath with ceramic tile (second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; High ceilings; Dining area; Entrance foyer; Game room; Family room on main level; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater; Humidifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-970 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (38.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (39.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (39.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 93/100 on livability (#6 in PA, #18 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• Parkland SD (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kernsville Sch (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #89 of 1,518 statewide, top 7%, 447 students, 24% FRL); Orefield Ms (math 33% / reading 60%, grade D+, #172 of 512 statewide, top 35%, 917 students, 36% FRL); Parkland Hs (math 81% / reading 24%, grade C-, #107 of 437 statewide, top 25%, 3,220 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $276k; list at $450k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $271,741 (39.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.24%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $466,368
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1834 Majestic Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	2,386 (-2%)	2mo	$520,000	$218	91
1863 Hemming Way	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,423 (-0%)	10mo	$387,000	$160	89
5221 Chandler Way	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,440 (+0%)	11mo	$362,445	$149	82
5205 High Vista Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	2,644 (+9%)	1mo	$530,700	$201	81
1824 Hemming Way	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,546 (+5%)	11mo	$375,000	$147	78
1800 Hemming Way	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,278 (-6%)	12mo	$380,000	$167	73
1477 Caspian St	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,454 (+1%)	7mo	$470,000	$192	68
1835 Emerald Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	2,158 (-11%)	12mo	$431,000	$200	65
1871 Emerald Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,068 (-15%)	6mo	$425,000	$206	64
1362 Caspian St	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,368 (-2%)	4mo	$422,000	$178	63
5263 High Vista Dr	0.12mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,644 (+9%)	14mo	$540,000	$204	59
1366 Caspian St	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,530 (+4%)	9mo	$463,000	$183	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-56,029
• Equity at exit: $150,721

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-46,988
• Equity at exit: $198,097

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18069

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$517 /mo · $6,206/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-970

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,946

Max offer price $278,508

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-716	-5% $-843	+0% $-970	+5% $-1,098	+10% $-1,225
Rent	-10% $-1,185	-5% $-1,078	+0% $-970	+5% $-863	+10% $-756
Rate	-1.0pp $-744	-0.5pp $-856	base $-970	+0.5pp $-1,087	+1.0pp $-1,205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1477 Tarpan Ln Allentown, PA	3.0	1.5	1899	$2,700	$1.42	45d	1	0.55mi
5335 Jutland Rd Allentown, PA	3.0	2.5	1899	$2,700	$1.42	45d	1	0.58mi
5380 Jutland Rd Allentown, PA	3.0	2.5	1971	$2,700	$1.37	22d	1	0.62mi
1350 Caspian St Allentown, PA	3.0	2.5	1922	$2,775	$1.44	4d	1	0.64mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $449,900 Active
3. 2014-04-24
   soldstatus $276,000
4. 2014-04-22
   soldstatus $276,000 1032-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

   Amazing Parkland Home! Just move in & enjoy this 3 BR 2.5 BA home with finished basement & 2 car gar. Distinctive upgraded features such as Hdwd flrs on 1st floor, trim molding pkg, & brushed nickel lighting fix thruout gives a feeling of elegance. There are over $70,000 upgrades in this immaculate home, included Designer selected paint colors. Kit. is upgraded to Cherry cabs w/ 42 inch uppers & base cabs equipped with rollout shelves. The Center Island includes under mount duel stainless steal sink, garbage disposal and Breakfast Nook. All appliances are GE Profile stainless! Master suite includes Tray ceiling, recessed lighting, large walk-in closet & Spa like Master Bath with upgraded tile, glass inlays, & soaking tub. Basement is finished (600+ sq feet) with gorgeous Acid Stained, Sealed concrete floor -great for a rec or media room. Close to all major routes, easy access to all needed necessities, and LOW monthly HOA fee. which takes care of lawn and makes this a MUST SEE HOME!

5. 2013-11-01
   listed $289,900 1032-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

   Amazing Parkland Home! Just move in & enjoy this 3 BR 2.5 BA home with finished basement & 2 car gar. Distinctive upgraded features such as Hdwd flrs on 1st floor, trim molding pkg, & brushed nickel lighting fix thruout gives a feeling of elegance. There are over $70,000 upgrades in this immaculate home, included Designer selected paint colors. Kit. is upgraded to Cherry cabs w/ 42 inch uppers & base cabs equipped with rollout shelves. The Center Island includes under mount duel stainless steal sink, garbage disposal and Breakfast Nook. All appliances are GE Profile stainless! Master suite includes Tray ceiling, recessed lighting, large walk-in closet & Spa like Master Bath with upgraded tile, glass inlays, & soaking tub. Basement is finished (600+ sq feet) with gorgeous Acid Stained, Sealed concrete floor -great for a rec or media room. Close to all major routes, easy access to all needed necessities, and LOW monthly HOA fee. which takes care of lawn and makes this a MUST SEE HOME!

6. 2013-10-31
   historical
7. 2013-10-31
   historical
8. 2013-04-26
   listed $289,900
9. 2013-04-26
   listed $289,900
10. 2006-12-22
    soldstatus $279,850
11. 2006-12-20
    soldstatus $279,850
12. 2006-12-14
    historical
13. 2006-06-13
    listed $299,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,206 · $517/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,657 · $555/mo
• Expected delta: +$451/yr (+$38/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$6,206
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,609
• − Management: −$2,609
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable loss: −$19,990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,797
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkland SD
• NCES district ID: 4218510
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $77,976
• Composite: 57.44/100
• National rank: #1074
• State rank: #40 of 539 in PA

Livability — Cetronia

• Score: 93/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #18

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,804

Population outlook (Lehigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,957 people
• By 2030: 408,319 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 440,007 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 475,940 · +21.1%
• By 2075: 590,448 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 690,314 · +75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lehigh

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 2.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.7 2020: D+7.6 2016: D+4.4 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Current HPI: 277.9781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $449,900 GLVRMLS
• 2014-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $276,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-22 Sold (MLS) $276,000 GLVRMLS
• 2013-11-01 Listed $289,900 GLVRMLS
• 2013-10-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-10-31 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2013-04-26 Listed $289,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-04-26 Listed $289,900 GLVRMLS
• 2006-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $279,850 Public Records
• 2006-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $279,850 Public Records
• 2006-12-14 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2006-06-13 Listed $299,900 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,206 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.