953 Third St #101 · Blaine, WA 98230

$315,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 969 sqft · Condo public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2011 $200/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

One block from the Blaine waterfront, this ground-floor end unit is downtown living at its finest. Wake up to a peekaboo harbor views from your granite kitchen, complete with stainless appliances and filtered water. The open-concept layout flows beautifully — bright, airy, and designed to feel bigger than you'd expect. Primary suite with walk-in closet and private en-suite bathroom. Second bedroom, second bath, private patio, in-unit washer/dryer, and two dedicated parking spots. Low HOA dues ($200) and no rental restrictions. Walk to Starbucks, the waterfront, local dining, boutique shops, and Blaine's marina. Come tour your your new home today!

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Private patio
• In-unit washer dryer

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE PATIO
• IN-UNIT WASHER DRYER
• TWO DEDICATED PARKING SPOTS
• LOW HOA DUES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-616 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (34.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.2% in Blaine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#125 in WA, #2,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $194,591 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.39%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $132,511
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $421,525
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,046/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,726

Max offer price $206,115

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-438	-5% $-527	+0% $-616	+5% $-706	+10% $-795
Rent	-10% $-770	-5% $-693	+0% $-616	+5% $-540	+10% $-463
Rate	-1.0pp $-458	-0.5pp $-536	base $-616	+0.5pp $-698	+1.0pp $-781

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
399 H St #7 Blaine, WA	1.0	1.0	653	$1,595	$2.44	15d	1	0.23mi
399 H St Unit 3D Blaine, WA	2.0	1.5	929	$1,895	$2.04	15d	1	0.23mi
756 F St Unit 3 Blaine, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,525	$1.91	45d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $315,000 Active
3. 2023-05-19
   soldstatus $315,000 Closed
4. 2023-04-20
   status Pending
5. 2023-04-19
   price $315,000
6. 2023-03-24
   listed $320,000 Active
7. 2020-02-28
   soldstatus $220,000 Sold
8. 2020-02-06
   status Pending
9. 2020-01-29
   status Pending Inspection
10. 2020-01-23
    listed $220,000 Active
11. 2017-12-22
    soldstatus $155,000 Sold
12. 2017-12-22
    soldstatus $155,100
13. 2017-11-13
    status Pending Inspection
14. 2017-08-21
    status Active
15. 2017-07-24
    status Pending Inspection
16. 2017-07-15
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,046 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,087 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,041/yr (+$87/mo · 50.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,046
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$13,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,172
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Blaine

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #2491

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment B Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blaine, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+110.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $315,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-19 Sold (MLS) $315,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-19 Price Changed $315,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-24 Listed $320,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-28 Sold (MLS) $220,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-06 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-23 Listed $220,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $155,100 Public Records
• 2017-12-22 Sold (MLS) $155,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-21 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-15 Listed $150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,046 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.