1904 Andrews St · Rockford, IL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +26.7/30.0
- DSCR +9.2/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +6.8/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.2/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$119,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This is an amazing home. It has been completely updated. Fresh paint with warm tones and white trim. Refinished hardwood floors. New kitchen with plenty of cabinets and all new stainless steel appliances. Updated electric. New furnace and central air! All just ready to move in. Detached one car garage. Full basement. Sunroom for your morning coffee! Clean, nice and ready for you. Privacy fenced yard. The work has already been done for you!
Key facts
- New furnace
- New kitchen
- Updated electric
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
- Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
- Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $30k; list at $120k implies a 293% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.18% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.55%
- Cash-on-cash
- 11.62%
- DSCR
- 1.52
- GRM
- 7.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $59,383
- List price
- $119,900
- Delta
- 101.91%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 410 Oakley Ave | 0.18mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,440 (-4%) | 5mo | $105,000 | $73 | 76 |
| 718 N Central Ave | 0.31mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,432 (-4%) | 6mo | $127,840 | $89 | 66 |
| 317 N Central Ave | 0.16mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,364 (-9%) | 6mo | $112,000 | $82 | 65 |
| 707 Royal Ave | 0.27mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,279 (-15%) | 1mo | $87,000 | $68 | 57 |
| 2118 Elm St | 0.35mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,352 (-10%) | 2mo | $150,000 | $111 | 56 |
| 2111 Sherman Ave | 0.42mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,371 (-9%) | 5mo | $56,898 | $42 | 52 |
| 1227 Chestnut St | 0.62mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,611 (+7%) | 3mo | $92,000 | $57 | 49 |
| 2916 School St | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,578 (+5%) | 4mo | $200,000 | $127 | 48 |
| 1332 School St | 0.41mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,678 (+12%) | 7mo | $60,000 | $36 | 47 |
| 915 Hoban Ave | 0.61mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,676 (+12%) | 1mo | $159,000 | $95 | 44 |
| 402 N Horace Ave | 0.57mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,710 (+14%) | 3mo | $100,000 | $58 | 42 |
| 2315 Green St | 0.52mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,290 (-14%) | 7mo | $113,000 | $88 | 42 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 1.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.04×
- Total profit
- $1,284
- Equity at exit
- $17,877
- IRR
- 10.6%
- Equity multiple
- 1.83×
- Total profit
- $27,790
- Equity at exit
- $10,367
Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 61101
- Home prices YoY
- -25.4%
- Active inventory
- 76
- Price-to-rent
- 7.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,418 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$629
- Tax from tax record
- −$116 /mo · $1,392/yr
- Insurance
- −$50
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$298
- Net cashflow
- $325
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $393 | -5% $359 | +0% $325 | +5% $291 | +10% $257 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $213 | -5% $269 | +0% $325 | +5% $381 | +10% $437 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $386 | -0.5pp $356 | base $325 | +0.5pp $294 | +1.0pp $263 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $29,975
- Closing costs
- $3,597
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 11 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1510 School St Unit 1 Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1400 | $1,200 | $0.86 | 44d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 418 Orchard Park Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1232 | $1,500 | $1.22 | 14d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 2403 Elm St Rockford, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1373 | $1,400 | $1.02 | 14d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 2403 Elm St Rockford, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1373 | $1,400 | $1.02 | 44d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 2315 Green St Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1290 | $1,600 | $1.24 | 44d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 2916 School St Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1578 | $2,400 | $1.52 | 44d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 901 N Horace Ave Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1400 | $1,700 | $1.21 | 14d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 1617 Vermont St Rockford, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1375 | $1,325 | $0.96 | 44d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 2422 Benderwirt Ave Unit 2422-1 Rockford, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1150 | $1,025 | $0.89 | 44d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 226 S Main St Rockford, IL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1066 | $1,560 | $1.46 | 14d | 3 | 1.41mi |
| 1248 Ferguson St #2 Rockford, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1200 | $1,200 | $1.00 | 14d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Listing history 8 events
-
2026-06-13statusdays on market $119,900 Pending 25 DOM
-
2026-06-10remarks 488-char remark
-
2026-06-10pricestatusdays on market $119,900 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-05-12status Pending 443-char remark
Show marketing remark (443 chars)
This is an amazing home. It has been completely updated. Fresh paint with warm tones and white trim. Refinished hardwood floors. New kitchen with plenty of cabinets and all new stainless steel appliances. Updated electric. New furnace and central air! All just ready to move in. Detached one car garage. Full basement. Sunroom for your morning coffee! Clean, nice and ready for you. Privacy fenced yard. The work has already been done for you!
-
2026-05-05price $124,900 443-char remark
Show marketing remark (443 chars)
This is an amazing home. It has been completely updated. Fresh paint with warm tones and white trim. Refinished hardwood floors. New kitchen with plenty of cabinets and all new stainless steel appliances. Updated electric. New furnace and central air! All just ready to move in. Detached one car garage. Full basement. Sunroom for your morning coffee! Clean, nice and ready for you. Privacy fenced yard. The work has already been done for you!
-
2026-04-21price $129,900 443-char remark
Show marketing remark (443 chars)
This is an amazing home. It has been completely updated. Fresh paint with warm tones and white trim. Refinished hardwood floors. New kitchen with plenty of cabinets and all new stainless steel appliances. Updated electric. New furnace and central air! All just ready to move in. Detached one car garage. Full basement. Sunroom for your morning coffee! Clean, nice and ready for you. Privacy fenced yard. The work has already been done for you!
-
2026-04-20$119,900 Active 443-char remark
Show marketing remark (443 chars)
This is an amazing home. It has been completely updated. Fresh paint with warm tones and white trim. Refinished hardwood floors. New kitchen with plenty of cabinets and all new stainless steel appliances. Updated electric. New furnace and central air! All just ready to move in. Detached one car garage. Full basement. Sunroom for your morning coffee! Clean, nice and ready for you. Privacy fenced yard. The work has already been done for you!
-
2003-01-15soldstatus $30,500
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,392 · $116/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,057 · $171/mo
- Expected delta
- +$665/yr (+$55/mo · 47.8%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $17,011
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,716
- − Property taxes
- −$1,392
- − Insurance
- −$600
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,361
- − Management
- −$1,361
- − Depreciation
- −$3,488
- Taxable income
- $2,094
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$503
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,400/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Rockford SD 205
- NCES district ID
- 1734510
- Math proficiency
- 12% ▼ -2.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 16% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $42,533
- Composite
- 12.21/100
- National rank
- #9649
- State rank
- #533 of 620 in IL
Livability — Rockford
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #876
- US rank
- #17035
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Rockford, IL
- County
- Winnebago County · 147,297 people
- City population
- 147,297
- Metro
- Rockford, IL
- Population (ZIP)
- 19,318
- Household income
- $46,163
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1170.0
Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 271,080 people
- By 2030
- 260,684 · -3.8%
- By 2040
- 238,405 · -12.1%
- By 2050
- 216,129 · -20.3%
- By 2075
- 172,882 · -36.2%
- By 2100
- 135,336 · -50.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 44% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -69.58%
- Current HPI
- 204.8946
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Rockford, IL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
|
||
| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
||
| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
|
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Price history
+309.5% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-12 Pending — NWIAR
- 2026-05-05 Price Changed $124,900 NWIAR
- 2026-04-21 Price Changed $129,900 NWIAR
- 2026-04-20 Listed $119,900 NWIAR
- 2003-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records
Property tax history
+0.3%/yrLatest (2024): $1,392 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…