Aurora Plan · Heron Bay, GA 30248

$358,650

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · SingleFamily · 251 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the New Aurora plan-an exceptional single-level ranch design that blends comfort, style, and functionality. At the heart of the home, the gourmet kitchen features a spacious island and an L-shaped walk-in pantry, seamlessly flowing into the family room, dining area, and expansive breakfast nook-perfect for everyday living and effortless entertaining. Enjoy indoor-outdoor living with direct access to the patio from both the dining and family rooms. Tucked away for added privacy, the luxurious primary suite offers a serene retreat with dual vanities, a walk-in shower, a linen closet, and a generous walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms share a thoughtfully designed full bath, while a convenient laundry room and coat closet round out this beautifully crafted home.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Gourmet kitchen
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• L-SHAPED WALK-IN PANTRY
• INDOOR-OUTDOOR LIVING
• DIRECT ACCESS TO PATIO
• LUXURIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $358,650 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $361,870.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $359k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in Heron Bay — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bethlehem Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #753 of 1,228 statewide, top 64%, 474 students, 53% FRL); Luella Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #345 of 470 statewide, top 74%, 870 students, 53% FRL); Luella High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #277 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,373 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 732 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $283,476 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,870
• List price: $358,650
• Delta: -0.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5316 Heron Bay Blvd	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,827 (0%)	4mo	$360,600	$197	95
5349 Heron Bay Blvd	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,091 (+14%)	6mo	$376,000	$180	62
5365 Heron Bay Blvd	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,091 (+14%)	6mo	$360,000	$172	60
362 Southgate Dr	1.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,883 (+3%)	2mo	$295,000	$157	53
250 High Court Way	0.90mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-2%)	6mo	$297,500	$165	53
156 Cottage Club Dr	0.99mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,742 (-5%)	2mo	$275,000	$158	51
104 Court Xing	0.83mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (+4%)	6mo	$300,000	$158	48
217 High Court Way	0.84mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,022 (+11%)	0mo	$290,000	$143	42
256 High Court Way	0.91mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,594 (-13%)	3mo	$280,000	$176	36
342 Southgate Dr	1.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,154 (+18%)	5mo	$320,000	$149	31
150 Cottage Club Dr	0.98mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,109 (+15%)	2mo	$295,000	$140	30
164 Cottage Club Dr	1.01mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,109 (+15%)	5mo	$295,000	$140	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-77,617
• Equity at exit: $53,956

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-98,433
• Equity at exit: $31,288

Cash invested: $101,324 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $359,000 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 61 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 732
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,898
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$452 /mo · $5,428/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,166

Max offer price $324,053

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-136	+0% $-261	+5% $-386	+10% $-511
Rent	-10% $-485	-5% $-373	+0% $-261	+5% $-149	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-169	base $-261	+0.5pp $-355	+1.0pp $-451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,467
• Closing costs: $10,856
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5341 Heron Bay Blvd Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	2091	$2,800	$1.34	93d	1	0.11mi
7663 Watson Cir Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.0	2556	$2,800	$1.10	49d	1	0.72mi
222 High Court Way Locust Grove, GA	3.0	3.0	2259	$2,299	$1.02	87d	1	0.84mi
117 Cottage Club Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	3.0	2109	$1,995	$0.95	139d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $358,650 Active 251 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $358,650 Active 249 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $358,650 Active 248 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $358,650 Active 247 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $358,650 Active 246 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $358,650 Active 245 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $358,650 Active 244 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $358,650 Active 243 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $358,650 Active 242 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $358,650 Active 241 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $358,650 Active 240 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $358,650 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $358,650 Active 233 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $358,650 Active 232 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $358,650 Active 231 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $358,650 Active 228 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $358,650 Active 226 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $358,650 Active 225 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $358,650 Active 224 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $358,650 Active 222 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $358,650 Active 221 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $358,650 Active 220 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $358,650 Active 219 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $358,650 Active 218 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $358,650 Active 217 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $358,650 Active 216 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $358,650 Active 215 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $358,650 Active 214 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $358,650 Active 213 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $358,650 Active 212 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $358,650 Active 211 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $358,650 Active 210 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $358,650 Active 209 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $358,650 Active 208 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $358,650 Active 207 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $358,650 Active 206 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $358,650 Active 205 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $358,650 Active 203 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $358,650 Active 202 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $358,650 Active 201 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $358,650 Active 200 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $358,650 Active 197 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $358,650 Active 195 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $358,650 Active 194 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $358,650 Active 192 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $358,650 Active 190 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    pricedays on market $358,650 Active 189 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $358,400 Active 188 DOM
49. 2026-07-20
    days on market $358,400 Active 186 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $358,400 Active 184 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,270
• − Property taxes: −$5,428
• − Insurance: −$1,809
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,721
• − Management: −$2,721
• − Depreciation: −$10,527
• Taxable loss: −$9,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bethlehem Elementary School F GA #753/1,228 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Luella Middle School F GA #345/470 Nat'l #11,564/14,009 High Luella High School F GA #277/424 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Heron Bay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #10151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heron Bay, GA
• County: Henry County · 249,041 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $353,400 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Listed $349,900 Zillow