35108 N Lead Way · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$439,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,003 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2022 5,521 sqft lot $219/sqft · 6% below area Est $469k · 6% under $208/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fall in love with this stunning single-level Chapin Ranch home in the Preserve at San Tan. The open concept layout flows seamlessly from the bright foyer into the spacious great room and kitchen, featuring ample cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances. Large windows fill the home with natural light, while luxury vinyl plank flooring adds styled living. Enjoy a private office, roomy secondary bedrooms, and a generous primary suite with dual sinks and a walk-in closet. Step outside to a landscaped backyard with a covered patio. Community amenities include courts, parks, and more. just minutes from shopping and dining!

Key facts

• 5,521 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-795 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (32.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 489 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,151 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.76%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $468,872
• List price: $439,000
• Delta: -6.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4199 W Erik Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,049 (+2%)	1mo	$402,000	$196	81
4186 W Erik Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,049 (+2%)	1mo	$447,000	$218	81
4444 W Hunter Trl	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,049 (+2%)	1mo	$484,990	$237	72
3629 W Lapis Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,212 (+10%)	1mo	$610,000	$276	72
4183 W Erik Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,832 (-8%)	1mo	$448,990	$245	67
4202 W Erik Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,832 (-8%)	1mo	$450,000	$246	66
3343 W Mary Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,808 (-10%)	1mo	$482,926	$267	66
4232 W Erik Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,832 (-8%)	1mo	$455,000	$248	65
34942 N Hawley Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,784 (-11%)	1mo	$452,813	$254	63
4017 W Brenley Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,837 (-8%)	1mo	$455,000	$248	55
4164 W Suncup Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,819 (-9%)	1mo	$567,000	$312	52
4447 W Mountain Laural Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (-13%)	1mo	$395,000	$228	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $188,424
• Equity at exit: $395,486

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $594,601
• Equity at exit: $852,880

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,662 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,452/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$208
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,668

Max offer price $298,589

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-546	-5% $-671	+0% $-795	+5% $-919	+10% $-1,043
Rent	-10% $-1,005	-5% $-900	+0% $-795	+5% $-690	+10% $-585
Rate	-1.0pp $-574	-0.5pp $-683	base $-795	+0.5pp $-909	+1.0pp $-1,024

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35032 N Barrel Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	2213	$3,900	$1.76	0d	1	0.06mi
34973 N Augite Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2614	$4,350	$1.66	0d	1	0.08mi
4001 W Brass Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,750	$1.13	45d	1	0.26mi
3541 Dreamy Draw Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	1918	$2,700	$1.41	26d	1	0.27mi
3439 W Oil Well Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	45d	1	0.28mi
4165 W Monika Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	45d	1	0.31mi
35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,000	$1.09	13d	1	0.41mi
35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	1d	1	0.41mi
4287 W Jeanette Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,450	$1.20	20d	1	0.45mi
4265 W Janie St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,100	$1.14	26d	1	0.47mi
3846 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	3.0	2422	$1,949	$0.80	26d	1	0.54mi
2822 W Blue River Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,395	$1.49	45d	1	0.55mi
3569 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,550	$0.91	26d	1	0.57mi
4565 W Hunter Trl San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,370	$1.16	1d	1	0.59mi
4332 W Hannah St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	45d	1	0.60mi
34113 N Alison Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2423	$2,089	$0.86	5d	1	0.62mi
3877 W Naomi Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2010	$1,850	$0.92	7d	1	0.62mi
2828 Patagonia Ct Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	2230	$2,500	$1.12	45d	1	0.69mi
33993 N Danja Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,450	$1.23	45d	1	0.71mi
3792 W Santa Cruz Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1852	$1,795	$0.97	45d	1	0.74mi
2541 W Canyon Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2485	$2,100	$0.85	20d	1	0.74mi
2521 W Desert Spring Way San Tan Valley, AZ	5.0	2.5	2067	$2,175	$1.05	26d	1	0.75mi
33889 N Barbara Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1868	$1,975	$1.06	7d	1	0.76mi
3854 W Carlos Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,775	$1.16	1d	1	0.79mi
4504 W Stonecrop Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,075	$1.15	7d	1	0.80mi
3047 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,915	$1.32	45d	1	0.80mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	17d	1	0.81mi
3102 W Belle Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,900	$1.00	15d	1	0.81mi
33810 N Mercedes Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1504	$1,925	$1.28	45d	1	0.81mi
4502 W Feather Plume Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	5.0	3.0	2722	$2,565	$0.94	26d	1	0.86mi
26358 S 224th Pl Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1877	$2,135	$1.14	45d	1	0.86mi
33897 N Wash View Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,980	$1.15	5d	1	0.86mi
4251 W Dayflower Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,490	$0.97	7d	1	0.88mi
22457 E Watford Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,650	$1.22	45d	1	0.88mi
3369 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	2617	$2,715	$1.04	1d	1	0.92mi
34437 N Picket Post Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	1507	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.92mi
3194 W Yellow Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1925	$1,908	$0.99	45d	1	0.92mi
33856 N Cherry Creek Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1928	$1,850	$0.96	45d	1	0.94mi
2005 W Aston Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	1.5	2554	$2,350	$0.92	7d	1	1.05mi
2049 W Gold Mine Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1585	$2,085	$1.32	7d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $208 · $2,496/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $439,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $439,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $439,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $439,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $454,000 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Fall in love with this stunning single-level Chapin Ranch home in the Preserve at San Tan. The open concept layout flows seamlessly from the bright foyer into the spacious great room and kitchen, featuring ample cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances. Large windows fill the home with natural light, while luxury vinyl plank flooring adds styled living. Enjoy a private office, roomy secondary bedrooms, and a generous primary suite with dual sinks and a walk-in closet. Step outside to a landscaped backyard with a covered patio. Community amenities include courts, parks, and more. just minutes from shopping and dining!

17. 2026-04-03
    listed $459,000 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Fall in love with this stunning single-level Chapin Ranch home in the Preserve at San Tan. The open concept layout flows seamlessly from the bright foyer into the spacious great room and kitchen, featuring ample cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances. Large windows fill the home with natural light, while luxury vinyl plank flooring adds styled living. Enjoy a private office, roomy secondary bedrooms, and a generous primary suite with dual sinks and a walk-in closet. Step outside to a landscaped backyard with a covered patio. Community amenities include courts, parks, and more. just minutes from shopping and dining!

18. 2025-01-11
    historical $2,399
19. 2024-11-22
    listed $2,399
20. 2019-10-18
    soldstatus $21,124,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,452 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,897 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$445/yr (+$37/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$2,452
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,555
• − Management: −$2,555
• − HOA: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$17,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,242
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-97.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $454,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $459,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-11 Rental Removed $2,399 ARMLS
• 2024-11-22 Listed for Rent $2,399 ARMLS
• 2019-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $21,124,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+185.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,452 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.