2531 Cienaga St #31 · Oceano, CA 93445

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 1960 $245/sqft · at area comps Est $186k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Casa Del Rey 55+ community. Explore the amenities such as the pool, spa, and outdoor common area for your leisure. Corner lot with lots of backyard space and outdoor patio seating. Featuring 2 bedrooms & 1 full bathroom with separate laundry room/office. Just a 6 minute drive to the Oceano dunes & Beach. Down the street from restaurants and shopping. Schedule your showing today with your favorite realtor.

Key facts

• Spa
• Pool
• Outdoor common area

Tags

• POOL
• SPA
• OUTDOOR COMMON AREA
• CORNER LOT
• BACKYARD SPACE
• OUTDOOR PATIO SEATING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.5% in Oceano — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#346 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities D, schools F.
• Lucia Mar Unified (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #433 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 14 sale attempts since 31y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.05%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,468
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 5.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2531 Cienaga St #28	0.00mi	2/2.0	750 (-1%)	10mo	$164,000	$219	86
2300 Cienaga #36	0.25mi	2/2.0	720 (-5%)	5mo	$250,000	$347	72
2531 Cienaga St #39	0.00mi	2/1.0	700 (-7%)	24mo	$209,900	$300	68
1241 Farroll Ave #58	0.71mi	2/1.0	696 (-8%)	8mo	$155,000	$223	47
1623 23rd St #6	0.29mi	2/2.0	864 (+14%)	17mo	$255,000	$295	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $425
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $39,611
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93445

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2531 Cienaga St #13 Oceano, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	23d	1	0.04mi
1247 Driftwood St Grover Beach, CA	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,600	$2.39	23d	1	0.67mi
1451 16th St Oceano, CA	2.0	2.0	928	$2,800	$3.02	43d	1	0.74mi
314 S Halcyon Rd Arroyo Grande, CA	2.0	1.0	780	$2,650	$3.40	43d	1	1.18mi
312 S Halcyon Rd Unit B Arroyo Grande, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$3,000	$3.33	43d	1	1.18mi
198 S Elm St Unit C Arroyo Grande, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,375	$2.64	23d	1	1.21mi
976 S 13th St Apt B Grover Beach, CA	2.0	1.5	944	$2,050	$2.17	23d	1	1.27mi
1036 Baden Ave Grover Beach, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	43d	1	1.41mi
251 S Oak Park Blvd Grover Beach, CA	2.0	2.0	908	$2,840	$3.13	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $185,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $197,000 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,000 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $197,000 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    historical
17. 2026-04-30
    historical
18. 2026-03-19
    status Active
19. 2026-03-19
    status Active
20. 2026-03-19
    status Active
21. 2026-01-26
    historical
22. 2026-01-26
    historical
23. 2026-01-26
    historical
24. 2025-12-09
    price $197,000
25. 2025-12-08
    listed $19,700 Active
26. 2025-12-08
    listed $197,000 Active
27. 2025-12-08
    listed $197,000 Active
28. 2024-03-21
    historical
29. 2024-03-21
    historical
30. 2024-03-21
    historical
31. 2024-01-03
    price $185,500
32. 2024-01-03
    price $185,500
33. 2024-01-02
    price $185,500
34. 2023-09-25
    listed $197,500 Active
35. 2023-09-21
    listed $197,500 Active
36. 2023-09-18
    listed $197,500 Active
37. 2023-07-01
    historical
38. 2023-05-23
    historical
39. 2023-05-23
    historical
40. 2022-10-13
    price $197,500
41. 2022-10-13
    price $197,500
42. 2022-10-13
    price $197,500
43. 2022-08-11
    listed $210,000 Active
44. 2022-08-10
    listed $210,000 Active
45. 2022-08-10
    listed $210,000 Active
46. 2017-04-07
    historical
47. 1995-05-13
    historical
48. 1995-02-13
    listed $31,500
49. 1995-02-13
    listed $31,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥80°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,133
• − Management: −$2,133
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $2,952
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$709
• After-tax cash flow: $5,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucia Mar Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623080
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,681
• Composite: 45.19/100
• National rank: #5782
• State rank: #433 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Oceano

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #11833

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A Housing B Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oceano, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,812

Population outlook (San Luis Obispo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 306,977 people
• By 2030: 320,378 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 343,933 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 366,853 · +19.5%
• By 2075: 428,329 · +39.5%
• By 2100: 460,687 · +50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 17% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · San Luis Obispo

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.5pp toward D · 2008: 5.4pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+8.3 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.63%
• Current HPI: 394.4039
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+525.4% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — SBMLS
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — NSBCRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $197,000 SBMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $197,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $197,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $19,700 SBMLS
• 2024-03-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-03-21 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2024-03-21 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 2024-01-03 Price Changed $185,500 SBMLS
• 2024-01-03 Price Changed $185,500 NSBCRMLS
• 2024-01-02 Price Changed $185,500 CRMLS
• 2023-09-25 Listed $197,500 SBMLS
• 2023-09-21 Listed $197,500 CRMLS
• 2023-09-18 Listed $197,500 NSBCRMLS
• 2023-07-01 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2023-05-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-05-23 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $197,500 SBMLS
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $197,500 NSBCRMLS
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $197,500 CRMLS
• 2022-08-11 Listed $210,000 CRMLS
• 2022-08-10 Listed $210,000 SBMLS
• 2022-08-10 Listed $210,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2017-04-07 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 1995-05-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1995-02-13 Listed $31,500 CRMLS
• 1995-02-13 Listed $31,500 NSBCRMLS